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Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Instability in Nigeria: A Rational Expectation Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Feridun, M.,
  • Folawewo, A. O.
  • Osinubi, T.S .

Abstract

Generally, both fiscal and monetary policies seek at achieving relative macroeconomic stability. Based on countries’ experience on the role of monetary policy in controlling economics instability, this study examines the efficacy of monetary policy in controlling inflation rate and exchange rate instability. The analysis performed is based on a rational expectation framework that incorporates the fiscal role of exchange rate. Using quarterly data spanning over 1980: 1 to 2000: 4, and applying time series test on the data used, the paper shows that the effort of monetary policy at influencing the finance of government fiscal deficit through the determination of the inflation-tax rate affects both the rate of inflation and the real exchange rate, thereby causing volatility in their rates. The paper reveals that inflation affects volatility of its own rate as well as in the rate of real exchange. The policy import of the paper is that monetary policy should be set in such a way that the objective it is to achieve is well defined.

Suggested Citation

  • Feridun, M., & Folawewo, A. O. & Osinubi, T.S ., 2005. "Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Instability in Nigeria: A Rational Expectation Approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:5:y:2005:i:2_4
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kenny S, Victoria, 2019. "The effect of real shocks on business cycle fluctuations. A Bayesian panel vector autoregressive approach," MPRA Paper 95716, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Victor Ugbem Oboh, 2017. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Coordination in Nigeria: A Set Theoretic Approach," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 3(1), pages 48-58, March.
    3. Apanisile Olumuyiwa Tolulope, 2013. "A Bound Test Analysis of Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Output and Prices in Nigeria 2000-2010," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 5(3), pages 136-147.
    4. Zied SAYARI & Rima LAJNAF, 2017. "Inflation targeting and volatility: Panel evidence," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 57-68, Spring.
    5. Goodness C. AYE & Rangan GUPTA, 2012. "The Effects Of Monetary Policy On Real Farm Prices In South Africa," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(1), pages 147-158.
    6. Ismail O. FASANYA & Adegbemi B.O ONAKOYA & Mariam A. AGBOLUAJE, 2013. "Does Monetary Policy Influence Economic Growth in Nigeria?," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(5), pages 635-646, May.
    7. Michael Baghebo & Ebibai Tombra Stephen, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Economic Growth in Nigeria (1980-2011)," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(1), pages 20-32, January.
    8. Asuamah Yeboah, Samuel, 2017. "Modelling the effect of exchange rate on inflation in Ghana," MPRA Paper 99395, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Zied SAYARI & Rima LAJNAF, 2017. "Inflation targeting and volatility: Panel evidence," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 57-68, Spring.
    10. Saibu M O, 2011. "Effects of Monetary Policy on Sectoral Output Growth in Nigeria (1986 to 2008)," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 2(6), pages 245-254.
    11. Modinat O. Olusoji, 2014. "Policy Framework and Management of Sustainable Macroeconomic Stability in Nigeria: Processes, Challenges and Prospects," International Journal of Social Science Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 2(2), pages 218-228, September.

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