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Uncertainty and Gravity Model for International Tourism Demand in Jordan: Evidence from Panel-GARCH Model

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  • Mohammad ALAWIN
  • Ziad ABU-LILA

Abstract

This study identifies the determinants of international tourism in Jordan, and studying the uncertainty as one of these determinants. To do this, the study employed two approaches; Gravity model to identify the determinants of international tourism, and Panel-GARCH model to investigate the effect of uncertainty on the number of tourist arrivals to Jordan. In order to accomplish these objectives, annual time series from 2000-2014 for 22 countries were carried out. The empirical results indicate that the level of Jordanian development, infrastructure, language and familiarity with location have a positive impact on the number of tourist arrivals to Jordan. On contrast of that, cost of living, exchange rate, distance and uncertainty have negative impacts. Finally, income of importing countries and hotel capacity were found statistically significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad ALAWIN & Ziad ABU-LILA, 2016. "Uncertainty and Gravity Model for International Tourism Demand in Jordan: Evidence from Panel-GARCH Model," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 16(1).
    • Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:16:y:2016:i:1_11
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    2. Shah Imtiyaz Ahmad & Nengroo Tariq Ahad & Haq Imtiyaz ul, 2022. "Determinants of International Tourism Demand in India: An Augmented Gravity Model Approach," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 32(3), pages 102-115, September.
    3. Xin Zhao & Muhammad Saeed Meo & Tella Oluwatoba Ibrahim & Noshaba Aziz & Solomon Prince Nathaniel, 2023. "Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Pandemic Uncertainty on International Tourism: What do We Learn From COVID-19?," Evaluation Review, , vol. 47(2), pages 320-349, April.
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    5. Chi-Wei Su & Xian-Li Meng & Ran Tao & Muhammad Umar, 2023. "Chinese consumer confidence: A catalyst for the outbound tourism expenditure?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(3), pages 696-717, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gravity model; Panel-GARCH model; Jordan; Tourism.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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