IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eaa/aeinde/v12y2012i2_8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Different Crowd Out Effects Of Tax Cut And Spending Deficits

Author

Listed:
  • John J. HEIM

Abstract

Government deficits financed by domestic borrowing were found to crowd out private borrowing and spending by consumers and businesses, in both recession and non-recession periods. Deficits due to tax cuts had a net negative effect on GDP, because stimulus effects are smaller than the crowd out effects. Spending deficits had a zero net impact. This study provides first time econometric evidence that crowd out effects prevail during recessions, and that spending and tax cut deficits have different effects. International borrowing avoids the crowd out problem caused by national deficits by augmenting, rather than taking from, domestic saving.

Suggested Citation

  • John J. HEIM, 2012. "The Different Crowd Out Effects Of Tax Cut And Spending Deficits," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:12:y:2012:i:2_8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.usc.es/economet/reviews/aeid1228.pdf
    Download Restriction: No.
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1978. "Crowding Out or Crowding In? Economic Consequences of Financing Government Deficits," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 9(3), pages 593-641.
    2. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
    3. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    4. Davide Furceri & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2009. "The Impact of Government Spending on the Private Sector: Crowding-out versus Crowding-in Effects"," NIPE Working Papers 6/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    5. William G. Gale & Peter R. Orszag, 2004. "Budget Deficits, National Saving, and Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 101-210.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xu, Kun & Xu, Wenli, 2015. "中国政府消费支出对经济波动的传导机理分析 [Study on Influential Mechanism Between Government Expenditure of Consumption and Economic Fluctuation]," MPRA Paper 70994, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2015.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John J. Heim, 2016. "Do government stimulus programs have different effects in recessions, or by type of tax or spending program?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1333-1368, December.
    2. Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Fiscal Policy Discretion, Private Spending, and Crisis Episodes," NIPE Working Papers 31/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    3. Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri & Ricardo Sousa, 2013. "Discretionary Government Consumption, Private Domestic Demand, and Crisis Episodes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 79-100, February.
    4. Ross Guest & Anthony J Makin, 2012. "Fiscal stimulus: an overlapping generations analysis," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 17(2), pages 1-25, September.
    5. OSENI Isiaq Olasunkanmi, 2015. "Fiscal Policy Shocks and Private Consumption in Nigeria: Blanchard-Perotti (2002) Approach," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 7(6), pages 42-60.
    6. Jocelyn Boussard & Francisco de Castro & Matteo Salto, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers and Public Debt Dynamics in Consolidations," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 460, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    7. Gonzalez-Hernandez, Ramon A. & Karayalcin, Cem, 2013. "Habit formation, adjustment costs, and international transmission of fiscal policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 341-359.
    8. Mr. Alejandro D Guerson, 2013. "The Composition of Fiscal Consolidation Matters: Policy Simulations for Hungary," IMF Working Papers 2013/207, International Monetary Fund.
    9. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Hungary: Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/086, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Ross Guest & Anthony Makin, 2013. "Special Issue. Guest Editor: Zhihao Yu," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 609-626, August.
    11. Deepankar Basu, 2009. "The Paradox of Thrift and Crowding-In of Private Investment in a Simple IS-LM Model," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2009-14, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    12. Agnello, Luca & Furceri, Davide & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013. "How best to measure discretionary fiscal policy? Assessing its impact on private spending," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-24.
    13. Fernando Broner & Daragh Clancy & Aitor Erce & Alberto Martin, 2022. "Fiscal Multipliers and Foreign Holdings of Public Debt," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(3), pages 1155-1204.
    14. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2001. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions over the Cycle: Some Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 2002_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Oct 2002.
    15. Michal Franta, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in the Czech Republic: Evidence Based on Various Identification Approaches in a VAR Framework," Working Papers 2012/13, Czech National Bank.
    16. Francisco de Castro, 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Spain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 913-924.
    17. Hyeongwoo Kim, 2018. "Fiscal Policy, Wages, and Jobs in the U.S," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2018-02, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    18. Sami Alpanda & Hyunji Song & Sarah Zubairy, 2021. "Household Debt and the Effects of Fiscal Policy," Working Papers 20210928-001, Texas A&M University, Department of Economics.
    19. Candelon, Bertrand & Lieb, Lenard, 2013. "Fiscal policy in good and bad times," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2679-2694.
    20. BOUNADER, Lahcen, 2016. "Is there a crowding-out effect in the Moroccan context ? Evidence from structural VAR Analysis," MPRA Paper 69275, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption; Investment; Deficits; Savings; Crowd Out Stimulus;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:12:y:2012:i:2_8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: M. Carmen Guisan (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.