IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/dug/actaec/y2013i5p86-102.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do Budget Deficits Affect Real Interest Rates? A Test of Ricardian Equivalence Theorem

Author

Listed:
  • Tuan Van Nguyen

    (University of Dalat, Vietnam)

Abstract

This study re-examines the Ricardian Equivalence theorem (RET) by using advanced time series econometric models to investigate updated data of the U.S. budget deficits and real interest rates. We employ a multi-model approach to thoroughly investigate the properties of two time series, namely the U.S. federal budget deficits (BDEF) and real interest rates (INTRATE) for the study period from 1798 to 2009. It is found that BDEF and INTRATE are I(0) processes. The AR (2) is the most appropriate model for the BDEF series, while the ARMA (3,2) is the proper model for the INTRATE series. The estimated VAR (2) model, comprising the two stationary series BDEF and INTRATE, implies that the BDEF series has no effect on the INTRATE series. The Granger-causality test also shows that there is no direction of causality from the BDEF series to the INTRATE series. Our findings are consistent with what the Ricardian Equivalence theorem predicts and, therefore, support the proposition that the budget deficits are neutral. This study significantly contributes to the extant literature of the relationship between the budget deficits and the real interest rates by applying the multi-model approach. Furthermore, our long time series dataset enables us to make reliable inferences.

Suggested Citation

  • Tuan Van Nguyen, 2013. "Do Budget Deficits Affect Real Interest Rates? A Test of Ricardian Equivalence Theorem," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 5(5), pages 86-102, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:dug:actaec:y:2013:i:5:p:86-102
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://journals.univ-danubius.ro/index.php/oeconomica/article/view/1965/1907
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lloyd Thomas & Danhua Wu, 2009. "Long-term interest rates and expected future budget deficits: evidence from the term structure," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 365-368.
    2. Ari Aisen & David Hauner, 2013. "Budget deficits and interest rates: a fresh perspective," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(17), pages 2501-2510, June.
    3. Nikiforos T. Laopodis, 2012. "Dynamic Linkages among Budget Deficits, Interest Rates and the Stock Market," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 33(4), pages 547-570, December.
    4. Thomas Laubach, 2009. "New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 858-885, June.
    5. David C. Rose & David R. Hakes, 1995. "Deficits and Interest Rates as Evidence of Ricardian Equivalence," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 21(1), pages 57-66, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ant Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2015. "Short- and long-run behaviour of long-term sovereign bond yields," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(37), pages 3971-3993, August.
    2. Malešević Perović, Lena, 2015. "The impact of fiscal positions on government bond yields in CEE countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 301-316.
    3. Lena Malešević-Perović, 2016. "Government Debt-Interest Rate Nexus in G7 Countries over a Long Horizon," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 63(5), pages 603-625, December.
    4. António Afonso, 2007. "An Avenue for Expansionary Fiscal Contractions," The IUP Journal of Public Finance, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3), pages 7-15, August.
    5. L. Marattin & P. Paesani & S. Salotti, 2011. "Fiscal shocks, public debt, and long-term interest rate dynamics," Working Papers wp740, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    6. Suvra Prokash Mondal & Biswajit Maitra, 2022. "Deficits, Debt and Interest Rates in Sri Lanka: Does the Spillover of Foreign Interest Rates Matter?," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 16(1), pages 28-48, February.
    7. Christoph A. Schaltegger & Martin Weder, 2014. "Fiscal adjustment and the costs of public debt service: evidence from OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(22), pages 2593-2610, August.
    8. Fazlioglu, S., 2013. "Determinants of sovereign debt yield spreads under EMU: Pairwise approach," Research Memorandum 007, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    9. Carlos David Ardila-Dueñas & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2019. "¿Cómo y qué tanto impacta la deuda pública a las tasas de interés de mercado?," Borradores de Economia 1077, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Grzegorz Parosa & Andrzej Rzońca, 2022. "Fiscal tensions and risk premium," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 833-896, August.
    11. Biswajit Maitra, 2017. "Monetary and fiscal factors in nominal interest rate variations in Sri Lanka under a deregulated regime," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 1-17, December.
    12. Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2012. "Sovereign risk premiums in the European government bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 975-995.
    13. Lekniute, Z. & Beetsma, R.M.W.J. & Ponds, Eduard, 2016. "Fooling the Market? Municipal Yields and Unfunded State Pension Liabilities," Other publications TiSEM 591eb14d-c598-4297-a775-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori & Ieva Sakalauskaite, 2017. "Long-term Interest Rates and Public Debt Maturity," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 84(335), pages 541-558, July.
    15. António Afonso & Frederico Silva Leal, 2017. "Sovereign yield spreads in the EMU: crisis and structural determinants," Working Papers Department of Economics 2017/09, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    16. Jemima Peppel-Srebrny, 2018. "Government borrowing cost and balance sheets: do assets matter?," Economics Series Working Papers 860, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    17. Ajax Moreira & Katia Rocha, 2009. "A Política Fiscal e as Taxas de Juros Domésticas nos Países Emergentes," Discussion Papers 1438, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    18. Claeys, Peter & Moreno, Rosina & Suriñach, Jordi, 2012. "Debt, interest rates, and integration of financial markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 48-59.
    19. Perveen, Asma & Munir, Kashif, 2017. "Impact of Total, Internal and External Government Debt on Interest Rate in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 83427, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Balázs Égert & Oliver Röhn, 2010. "Counter-cyclical Economic Policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 760, OECD Publishing.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dug:actaec:y:2013:i:5:p:86-102. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Daniela Robu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fedanro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.