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India's Economic Growth History: Fluctuations, Trends, Break Points and Phases

Author

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  • Arvind Virmani

    (Director & CE, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, Core 6A, 4th Floor, India Habitat Center, Lodhi Road, New Delhi 110003, India)

Abstract

This paper reviews India's growth performance since independence. One of the innovations in this paper is to take explicit account of rainfall variations that play a very important role in the Indian economy. This allows us to determine whether the Indian economy has become less dependent on the monsoons ('drought proof'). It also allows a statistically more accurate determination of the different phases of Indian economic growth. These phases are linked to different policy regimes and therefore allow us to evaluate the impact of a set of policies on economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Arvind Virmani, 2006. "India's Economic Growth History: Fluctuations, Trends, Break Points and Phases," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 41(1), pages 81-103, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:dse:indecr:v:41:y:2006:i:1:p:81-103
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Triyakshana Seshadri & Virgil Storr, 2010. "Knowledge problems associated with creating export zones," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 347-366, December.
    2. Bhalotra, Sonia & Chakravarty, Abhishek & Gulesci, Selim, 2020. "The price of gold: Dowry and death in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    3. Nomoto, Takaaki, 2016. "Rainfall Variability and Macroeconomic Performance:A Case Study of India, 1952–2013," MPRA Paper 71976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Sandeep Kumar Kujur, 2018. "Impact of Technological Change on Employment: Evidence from the Organised Manufacturing Industry in India," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 61(2), pages 339-376, June.
    5. Richard Herd & Sean Dougherty, 2007. "Growth Prospects in China and India Compared," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 4(1), pages 65-89, June.
    6. Arvind Virmani, 2009. "Macro-economic management of the Indian economy: capital flows, interest rates, and inflation," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 189-214.
    7. Aradhna Aggarwal & Nagesh Kumar, 2012. "Structural Change, Industrialization and Poverty Reduction: The Case of India," Development Papers 1206, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) South and South-West Asia Office.
    8. Ghate, Chetan & Wright, Stephen, 2012. "The “V-factor”: Distribution, timing and correlates of the great Indian growth turnaround," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 58-67.
    9. Kevin S. Nell, 2015. "The Complementary Nature Between Technological Progress and Capital Accumulation in India's Long-Run Growth Transitions," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(4), pages 565-605, November.
    10. World Bank Group, 2014. "Republic of India : Accelerating Agricultural Productivity Growth," World Bank Publications - Reports 21419, The World Bank Group.
    11. Iyer , Tara & Sen Gupta, Abhijit, 2019. "Nowcasting Economic Growth in India: The Role of Rainfall," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 593, Asian Development Bank.
    12. Mr. Arvind Virmani & Mr. Danish A Hashim, 2011. "J-Curve of Productivity and Growth: Indian Manufacturing Post-Liberalization," IMF Working Papers 2011/163, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Banga, Rashmi & Das, Abhijit, 2010. "Role of trade policies in growth of Indian manufacturing sector," MPRA Paper 35198, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Cortuk, O & Singh, N, 2015. "Analysing the structural change and growth relationship in India," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4qx907p3, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    15. Matthew McCartney, 2011. "Pakistan, Growth, Dependency, and Crisis," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(Special E), pages 71-94, September.
    16. Md., Samsur Jaman, 2014. "Monitoring Structural Changes in NER: -An Empirical Analysis of Mizoram," MPRA Paper 60270, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Harish Mani & G. Bhalachandran & V. N. Pandit, 2011. "Public Investment In Agricultural And Gdp Growth-- Another Look At The Inter Sectoral Linkages And Policy Implications," Working papers 201, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    18. Kala Seetharam Sridhar & A. Venugopala Reddy, 2011. "Investment and Economic Opportunities: Urbanization, Infrastructure and Governance in The North and South of India," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 18(1), pages 1-46, June.
    19. Mr. Arvind Virmani, 2012. "Accelerating And Sustaining Growth: Economic and Political Lessons," IMF Working Papers 2012/185, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Kevin S. Nell, 2013. "A Total Factor Productivity-Capital Accumulation Hypothesis of India’s Growth Transitions," CEF.UP Working Papers 1313, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Indian Economy; Economic Growth; Development; Phases of Growth; Socialism; Bharatiya Rate of Growth.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies
    • P0 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - General

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