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Measuring the Onset of the Great Depression: Then and Now

Author

Listed:
  • Bryan L. Boulier

    (The George Washington University)

  • H. O. Stekler

    (The George Washington University)

  • Jeremy Dutra

    (The George Washington University)

Abstract

U.S. industrial production data published in 1929-30 show a steep drop in production from June to December 1929 and a substantial recovery by February 1930. Revised data used in recent analyses of the Great Depression show a smaller decline in 1929 and no recovery period. This paper identifies differences in seasonal patterns as an important source of the disparity in the time paths of production. A comparison of modern seasonal adjustment procedures applied to data available in 1929-30 with methods applied in 1929-30 shows that the historical methods provided misleading real time information to economic agents and decision makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Bryan L. Boulier & H. O. Stekler & Jeremy Dutra, 2001. "Measuring the Onset of the Great Depression: Then and Now," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 137-151, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:dse:indecr:v:36:y:2001:i:1:p:137-151
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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