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The topography of the divorce plateau

Author

Listed:
  • R. Kelly Raley

    (University of Texas at Austin)

  • Larry L. Bumpass

    (University of Wisconsin–Madison)

Abstract

The probability of divorce in the U.S. has remained constant for the last two decades at about 'half of all marriages.' While this estimate is well established, and marked differentials in divorced rates are well known, there are no reliable estimates of differences in the cumulative probability of lifetime divorce. Using data from the 1990 June CPS, we document very large differentials by race, age at marriage, and education in the probability that recent cohorts of marriage will end in separation or divorce. Then, using data from the 1995 NSFG, we find important increases in differentials in marital dissolution, and especially in all unions, during this period of stable aggregate rates. These results indicate that examining only at marital transitions obscures the growth in family instability that has resulted among some groups because of an increasing proportion of unions begun as cohabitation.

Suggested Citation

  • R. Kelly Raley & Larry L. Bumpass, 2003. "The topography of the divorce plateau," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 8(8), pages 245-260.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:8:y:2003:i:8
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2003.8.8
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Samuel Preston & John McDonald, 1979. "The incidence of divorce within cohorts of American marriages contracted since the civil war," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 16(1), pages 1-25, February.
    2. Joshua Goldstein, 1999. "The leveling of divorce in the united states," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 36(3), pages 409-414, August.
    3. Jay Teachman, 2002. "Stability across cohorts in divorce risk factors," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 39(2), pages 331-351, May.
    4. Teresa Martin & Larry Bumpass, 1989. "Recent trends in marital disruption," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 26(1), pages 37-51, February.
    5. James McCarthy, 1978. "A comparison of the probability of the dissolution of first and second marriages," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 15(3), pages 345-359, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cohabitation; divorce; United States of America;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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