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Is the Previously Reported Increase in Second- and Higher-order Birth Rates in Norway and Sweden from the mid-1970s Real or a Result of Inadequate Estimation Methods?

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  • Øystein Kravdal

    (Universitetet i Oslo)

Abstract

According to models estimated separately for second-, third-, and fourth-birth rates in Norway, an increase took place from the mid-1970s to about 1990, given age and duration since last previous birth. A similar rise in the birth rates was seen in Sweden, except that the upturn at short durations was sharper. It is shown in this study, using Norwegian register data, that the increase partly reflects earlier changes in lower-order parity transitions. When models for each parity transition are estimated jointly, with a common unobserved factor included, there is no longer an upward trend in Norwegian second-birth rates, but a very weak decline, and the increase in the higher-order birth rates is strongly reduced compared to that found in the simpler approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Øystein Kravdal, 2002. "Is the Previously Reported Increase in Second- and Higher-order Birth Rates in Norway and Sweden from the mid-1970s Real or a Result of Inadequate Estimation Methods?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(9), pages 241-262.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:6:y:2002:i:9
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2002.6.9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Øystein Kravdal, 2001. "The High Fertility of College Educated Women in Norway," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 5(6), pages 187-216.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mar Llorente-Marrón & Montserrat Díaz-Fernández & Paz Méndez-Rodríguez, 2022. "Ranking fertility predictors in Spain: a multicriteria decision approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 311(2), pages 771-798, April.
    2. Kravdal, Øystein & Rindfuss, Ronald R., 2007. "Changing relationships between education and fertility – a study of women and men born 1940-64," Memorandum 11/2007, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    3. Hill Kulu & Paul J. Boyle & Gunnar Andersson, 2008. "High suburban fertility: evidence from four Northern European countries," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2008-021, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    4. Roberto Impicciatore & Giuseppe Gabrielli & Anna Paterno, 2020. "Migrants’ Fertility in Italy: A Comparison Between Origin and Destination," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 36(4), pages 799-825, September.
    5. Gianpiero DALLA ZUANNA & Roberto IMPICCIATORE, 2008. "Fertility and education in contemporary Northern and Southern Italy," Departmental Working Papers 2008-09, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano, revised 06 Dec 2010.
    6. Roberto Impicciatore & Gianpiero Dalla Zuanna, 2017. "The impact of education on fertility in Italy. Changes across cohorts and south–north differences," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(5), pages 2293-2317, September.
    7. Øystein Kravdal, 2007. "Effects of current education on second- and third-birth rates among Norwegian women and men born in 1964: Substantive interpretations and methodological issues," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 17(9), pages 211-246.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; unobserved heterogeneity; hazard models; period effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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