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An assessment of recent Iranian fertility trends using parity progression ratios

Author

Listed:
  • Peter McDonald

    (Australian National University)

  • Meimanat Hosseini-Chavoshi

    (Australian National University)

  • Mohammad Jalal Abbasi Shavazi

    (Vienna Institute of Demography (Austrian Academy of Sciences))

  • Arash Rashidian

    (Tehran University of Medical Sciences)

Abstract

Background: In 2013 a draft population bill was introduced in the Iranian Parliament. Based on the presumption that fertility in Iran had fallen to a very low level, the bill proposed a wide range of pronatalist policies with the aim of increasing fertility to 2.5 births per woman. The draft law called for restrictions on the employment of women and young single people and inducements for women to marry in their late teens. New estimates of fertility, such as those provided in this paper, cast doubt upon the view that fertility had fallen to a very low level. In May 2014 a statement issued by the Supreme Leader provided guidelines for a more moderate approach to sustaining fertility at around the replacement level. Objective: To measure the trend in fertility in Iran, especially from 2000 onwards. Methods: Using the 2010 IDHS, the synthetic cohort parity progression ratio method is used to measure the fertility trend in Iran. Synthetic parity progressions are compared with real cohort parity progressions to examine the presence of tempo effects. Comparison is made with age-based measures from surveys, censuses, and the birth registration system. Results: This paper demonstrates that fertility in Iran was constant for the decade 2000-2009, at a level of around 1.8-2.0 births per woman. Conclusions: Our findings provide evidence supporting a more moderate approach to sustaining fertility in Iran at around the replacement level. Comments: The paper demonstrates the advantages of parity-based measurement over age-based measurement when tempo effects may be involved.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter McDonald & Meimanat Hosseini-Chavoshi & Mohammad Jalal Abbasi Shavazi & Arash Rashidian, 2015. "An assessment of recent Iranian fertility trends using parity progression ratios," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(58), pages 1581-1602.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:32:y:2015:i:58
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2015.32.58
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:cai:poeine:pope_605_0701 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Christopher Avery & Travis St. Clair & Michael Levin & Kenneth Hill, 2013. "The 'Own Children' fertility estimation procedure: A reappraisal," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 67(2), pages 171-183, July.
    3. Karin Lundström & Gunnar Andersson, 2012. "Labor-market status, migrant status and first childbearing in Sweden," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 27(25), pages 719-742.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kryštof Zeman, 2018. "Cohort fertility and educational expansion in the Czech Republic during the 20th century," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(56), pages 1699-1732.
    2. Peter McDonald, 2016. "Demographic Change in the Asian Century: Implications for Australia and the Region," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(2), pages 155-172, May.
    3. Maryam Moridi & Farkhondeh Amin Shokravi & Fazlollah Ahmadi, 2019. "The paradox of acceptance: A content analysis of Iranian married female adolescent in confronting pregnancy," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(5), pages 1-15, May.
    4. Nasibeh Esmaeili & Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi, 2024. "Forecasting number of births and sex ratio at birth in Iran using deep neural network and ARIMA: implications for policy evaluations," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 1-21, December.
    5. Mathias Lerch & Thomas Spoorenberg, 2020. "The emergence of birth limitation as a new stage in the fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(30), pages 827-858.
    6. Shahram Moeeni & Maryam Moeeni, 2021. "The Impact of Intra-household Bargaining Game on Progression to Third Birth in Iran," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 61-72, March.
    7. Hasan Jafari & Abolghasem Pourreza & Ahmad Sadeghi & Gisoo Alizadeh & Rahim Khodayari-Zarnaq, 2022. "Identifying contextual effective factors on total fertility rate decline in Iran: a qualitative framework-based study," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 3395-3412, October.
    8. Kazenin, Konstantin (Казенин, Константин), 2017. "The Impact of Social Changes on Fertility in the Regions of the North Caucasus [Влияние Социальных Изменений На Рождаемость В Регионах Северного Кавказа]," Working Papers 061706, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    9. Thomas Spoorenberg & Hamidou Issaka Maga, 2018. "Fertility compression in Niger: A study of fertility change by parity (1977–2011)," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(24), pages 685-700.
    10. Mathias Lerch, 2020. "The emergence and diffusion of birth limitation in urban areas of developing countries," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2020-014, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Iran; fertility; parity progression; pronatalist policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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