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The future size of religiously affiliated and unaffiliated populations

Author

Listed:
  • Conrad Hackett

    (Pew Research Center)

  • Marcin Stonawski

    (Center for Advanced Studies of Population and Religion (CASPAR))

  • Michaela Potančoková

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Brian J. Grim

    (Boston University)

  • Vegard Skirbekk

    (Folkehelseinstituttet (Norwegian Institute of Public Health))

Abstract

Background: People who are religiously unaffiliated (including self-identifying atheists and agnostics, as well as those who say their religion is "nothing in particular") made up 16.4% of the world's population in 2010. Unaffiliated populations have been growing in North America and Europe, leading some to expect that this group will grow as a share of the world's population. However, such forecasts overlook the impact of demographic factors, such as fertility and the large, aging unaffiliated population in Asia. Objective: We project the future size of religiously affiliated and unaffiliated populations around the world. Methods: We use multistate cohort-component methods to project the size of religiously affiliated and unaffiliated populations. Projection inputs such as religious composition, differential fertility, and age structure data, as well as religious switching patterns, are based on the best available census and survey data for each country. This research is based on an analysis of more than 2,500 data sources. Results: Taking demographic factors into account, we project that the unaffiliated will make up 13.2% of the world’s population in 2050. The median age of religiously affiliated women is six years younger than unaffiliated women. The 2010-15 Total Fertility Rate for those with a religious affiliation is 2.59 children per woman, nearly a full child higher than the rate for the unaffiliated (1.65 children per woman). Conclusions: The religiously unaffiliated are projected to decline as a share of the world's population in the decades ahead because their net growth through religious switching will be more than offset by higher childbearing among the younger affiliated population.

Suggested Citation

  • Conrad Hackett & Marcin Stonawski & Michaela Potančoková & Brian J. Grim & Vegard Skirbekk, 2015. "The future size of religiously affiliated and unaffiliated populations," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(27), pages 829-842.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:32:y:2015:i:27
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2015.32.27
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. William Mosher & Linda Williams & David Johnson, 1992. "Religion and fertility in the United States: New patterns," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 29(2), pages 199-214, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Karin Hoisl & Myriam Mariani, 2017. "It’s a Man’s Job: Income and the Gender Gap in Industrial Research," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(3), pages 766-790, March.
    2. Vegard Skirbekk & Michaela PotanÄ oková & Conrad Hackett & Marcin Stonawski, 2018. "Religious Affiliation Among Older Age Groups Worldwide: Estimates for 2010 and Projections Until 2050," The Journals of Gerontology: Series B, The Gerontological Society of America, vol. 73(8), pages 1439-1445.
    3. Hasan Jafari & Abolghasem Pourreza & Ahmad Sadeghi & Gisoo Alizadeh & Rahim Khodayari-Zarnaq, 2022. "Identifying contextual effective factors on total fertility rate decline in Iran: a qualitative framework-based study," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 3395-3412, October.
    4. Michaela Potančoková & Sandra Jurasszovich & Anne Goujon, 2018. "Consequences of International Migration on the Size and Composition of Religious Groups in Austria," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 905-924, November.
    5. Laurie Fields DeRose, 2021. "Gender Equity, Religion, and Fertility in Europe and North America," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(1), pages 41-55, March.
    6. Maryam Dilmaghani, 2019. "Religiosity, Secularity and Fertility in Canada," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 35(2), pages 403-428, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    religion; projections; fertility; demographic change; secularization; religious affiliation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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