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More on the Cohort-Component Model of Population Projection in the Context of HIV/AIDS: A Leslie Matrix Representation and New Estimates

Author

Listed:
  • Jason Thomas

    (University of Wisconsin–Madison)

  • Samuel J. Clark

    (Ohio State University)

Abstract

This article presents an extension of the cohort component model of population projection (CCMPP) first formulated by Heuveline that is capable of modeling a population affected by HIV. We extend this work by developing the Leslie matrix representation of the CCMPP that greatly facilitates implementation of the model for parameter estimation and projecting. The Leslie matrix also contains information about the stable tendencies of the corresponding population, such as the stable age distribution and time to stability. We validate our reformulation of the model by comparing parameter estimates obtained through maximum likelihood and bootstrap methods to those presented by Heuveline.

Suggested Citation

  • Jason Thomas & Samuel J. Clark, 2011. "More on the Cohort-Component Model of Population Projection in the Context of HIV/AIDS: A Leslie Matrix Representation and New Estimates," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(2), pages 39-102.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:25:y:2011:i:2
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2011.25.2
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenneth Wachter & John Knodel & Mark Vanlandingham, 2002. "Aids and the elderly of thailand: projecting familial impacts," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 39(1), pages 25-41, February.
    2. Stanley Smith & Terry Sincich, 1988. "Stability over time in the distribution of population forecast errors," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 25(3), pages 461-474, August.
    3. Ian Timæus & Momodou Jasseh, 2004. "Adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from demographic and health surveys," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 41(4), pages 757-772, November.
    4. Kathleen Ford & Victoria Hosegood, 2005. "Aids mortality and the mobility of children in Kwazulu Natal, South Africa," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(4), pages 757-768, November.
    5. Patrick Heuveline, 2003. "HIV and population dynamics: A general model and maximum-likelihood standards for East Africa," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 40(2), pages 217-245, May.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Yueqiang Zhao & Manying Bai & Yali Liu & Junzhang Hao, 2017. "Quantitative Analyses of Transition Pension Liabilities and Solvency Sustainability in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-16, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    HIV/AIDS; Africa; estimation; prevalence; cohort-component method; incidence; model; Leslie matrices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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