IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/dem/demres/v25y2011i2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

More on the Cohort-Component Model of Population Projection in the Context of HIV/AIDS: A Leslie Matrix Representation and New Estimates

Author

Listed:
  • Jason Thomas

    (University of Wisconsin–Madison)

  • Samuel J. Clark

    (Ohio State University)

Abstract

This article presents an extension of the cohort component model of population projection (CCMPP) first formulated by Heuveline that is capable of modeling a population affected by HIV. We extend this work by developing the Leslie matrix representation of the CCMPP that greatly facilitates implementation of the model for parameter estimation and projecting. The Leslie matrix also contains information about the stable tendencies of the corresponding population, such as the stable age distribution and time to stability. We validate our reformulation of the model by comparing parameter estimates obtained through maximum likelihood and bootstrap methods to those presented by Heuveline.

Suggested Citation

  • Jason Thomas & Samuel J. Clark, 2011. "More on the Cohort-Component Model of Population Projection in the Context of HIV/AIDS: A Leslie Matrix Representation and New Estimates," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(2), pages 39-102.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:25:y:2011:i:2
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2011.25.2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol25/2/25-2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4054/DemRes.2011.25.2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ian Timæus & Momodou Jasseh, 2004. "Adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from demographic and health surveys," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 41(4), pages 757-772, November.
    2. Kathleen Ford & Victoria Hosegood, 2005. "Aids mortality and the mobility of children in Kwazulu Natal, South Africa," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(4), pages 757-768, November.
    3. Kenneth Wachter & John Knodel & Mark Vanlandingham, 2002. "Aids and the elderly of thailand: projecting familial impacts," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 39(1), pages 25-41, February.
    4. Patrick Heuveline, 2003. "HIV and population dynamics: A general model and maximum-likelihood standards for East Africa," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 40(2), pages 217-245, May.
    5. Stanley Smith & Terry Sincich, 1988. "Stability over time in the distribution of population forecast errors," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 25(3), pages 461-474, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Katarzyna Zawalińska & Jouko Kinnunen & Piotr Gradziuk & Dorota Celińska-Janowicz, 2020. "To Whom Should We Grant a Power Plant? Economic Effects of Investment in Nuclear Energy in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-26, May.
    2. Yueqiang Zhao & Manying Bai & Yali Liu & Junzhang Hao, 2017. "Quantitative Analyses of Transition Pension Liabilities and Solvency Sustainability in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Yueqiang Zhao & Manying Bai & Peng Feng & Mengyuan Zhu, 2018. "Stochastic Assessments of Urban Employees’ Pension Plan of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-15, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Raouf Boucekkine & Rodolphe Desbordes & Hélène Latzer, 2009. "How do epidemics induce behavioral changes?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 233-264, September.
    2. Iliana Kohler & Hans-Peter Kohler & Phil Anglewicz & Jere Behrman, 2012. "Intergenerational Transfers in the Era of HIV/AIDS: Evidence from Rural Malawi," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 27(27), pages 775-834.
    3. Phil Anglewicz & Jimi Adams & Francis Obare & Hans-Peter Kohler & Susan Watkins, 2009. "The Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project 2004-06," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(21), pages 503-540.
    4. J Reilly, 1997. "A Method of Assigning Population and a Progress Report on the Use of a Spatial Simulation Model," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 24(5), pages 725-739, October.
    5. repec:pri:rpdevs:vogl_family_size is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Isabel Günther & Kenneth Harttgen, 2010. "Deadly Cities? A Note on Spatial Inequalities in Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 52, Courant Research Centre PEG.
    7. repec:lic:licosd:29111 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Wachter, Kenneth W. & Knodel, John E. & VanLandingham, Mark, 2003. "Parental bereavement: heterogeneous impacts of AIDS in Thailand," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 193-206, January.
    9. Belgi Turan, 2020. "Life expectancy and economic development: Evidence from microdata," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 949-972, August.
    10. Jeff Tayman & Stanley Smith & Jeffrey Lin, 2007. "Precision, bias, and uncertainty for state population forecasts: an exploratory analysis of time series models," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 26(3), pages 347-369, June.
    11. Philip Anglewicz, 2012. "Migration, Marital Change, and HIV Infection in Malawi," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(1), pages 239-265, February.
    12. Rodier, Caroline J. & Johnston, Robert A., 2002. "Uncertain socioeconomic projections used in travel demand and emissions models: could plausible errors result in air quality nonconformity?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 613-631, August.
    13. Yamauchi, Futoshi & Buthelezi, Thabani & Velia, Myriam, 2006. "Gender, labor, and prime-age adult mortality: evidence from South Africa," FCND briefs 208, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    14. Tom Vogl, 2013. "Differential Fertility, Human Capital, and Development," Working Papers 1452, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies..
    15. Emmanuela Gakidou & Gary King, 2006. "Death by survey: Estimating adult mortality without selection bias from sibling survival data," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 43(3), pages 569-585, August.
    16. Shobande Olatunji Abdul & Shodipe Oladimeji Tomiwa, 2020. "Re-Evaluation of World Population Figures: Politics and Forecasting Mechanics," Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 34(1), pages 104-125, February.
    17. Lauren Gaydosh, 2015. "Childhood Risk of Parental Absence in Tanzania," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(4), pages 1121-1146, August.
    18. Ueyama, Mika, 2007. "Mortality, mobility, and schooling outcomes among orphans: Evidence from Malawi," IFPRI discussion papers 710, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    19. Phil Anglewicz & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2009. "Overestimating HIV infection:," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(6), pages 65-96.
    20. Stefan Rayer & Stanley Smith, 2014. "Population Projections by Age for Florida and its Counties: Assessing Accuracy and the Impact of Adjustments," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 33(5), pages 747-770, October.
    21. Emily Oster, 2012. "Routes Of Infection: Exports And Hiv Incidence In Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1025-1058, October.
    22. repec:bpj:pepspp:v:18:y:2012:i:3:p:12:n:15 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Damien De Walque & Deon Filmer, 2013. "Trends and Socioeconomic Gradients in Adult Mortality around the Developing World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(1), pages 1-29, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    HIV/AIDS; Africa; estimation; prevalence; cohort-component method; incidence; model; Leslie matrices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:25:y:2011:i:2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Editorial Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.