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Forecasting sex differences in mortality in high income nations

Author

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  • Fred Pampel

    (University of Colorado Boulder)

Abstract

To address the question of whether the sex differential in mortality will in the future rise, fall, or stay the same, this study uses the relative smoking prevalence among males and females to forecast future changes in relative smoking-attributed mortality. Data on 21 high income nations from 1975 to 2000 and a lag between smoking prevalence and mortality allow forecasts up to 2020. Averaged across nations, the results reveal narrowing of measures of the sex differential in smoking mortality. However, continued widening of the differential in non-smoking mortality would counter narrowing due to smoking and lead to future increases in the female advantage overall, particularly in nations at late stages of the cigarette epidemic (such as the United States and the United Kingdom) where narrowing of the smoking differential has already begun to slow.

Suggested Citation

  • Fred Pampel, 2005. "Forecasting sex differences in mortality in high income nations," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 13(18), pages 455-484.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:13:y:2005:i:18
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2005.13.18
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fred C. Pampel, 2002. "Cigarette Use and the Narrowing Sex Differential in Mortality," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(1), pages 77-104, March.
    2. Thun, M.J. & Day-Lally, C.A. & Calle, E.E. & Flanders, W.D. & Heath Jr., C.W., 1995. "Excess mortality among cigarette smokers: Changes in a 20-year interval," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 85(9), pages 1223-1230.
    3. Waldron, Ingrid, 1993. "Recent trends in sex mortality ratios for adults in developed countries," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 451-462, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cristina Bellés-Obrero & Sergi Jiménez-Martín & Judit Vall Castello, 2020. "Unintended Health Costs of Gender Equalization," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_103v2, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    2. Brian Rostron & John Wilmoth, 2011. "Estimating the Effect of Smoking on Slowdowns in Mortality Declines in Developed Countries," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(2), pages 461-479, May.
    3. Yang, Seungmi & Khang, Young-Ho & Chun, Heeran & Harper, Sam & Lynch, John, 2012. "The changing gender differences in life expectancy in Korea 1970–2005," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 75(7), pages 1280-1287.
    4. Vanella, Patrizio & Deschermeier, Philipp, 2018. "A Probabilistic Cohort-Component Model for Population Forecasting - The Case of Germany," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-638, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    5. Cristina Bellés-Obrero & Sergi Jiménez-Martín & Judit Vall Castello, 2019. "Education and gender differences in mortality rates," Economics Working Papers 1660, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    6. Cristina Bellés-Obrero & Sergi Jiménez-Martín & Judit Vall Castello, 2022. "Minimum working age and the gender mortality gap," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 1897-1938, October.
    7. Adrian E. Raftery & Nevena Lalic & Patrick Gerland, 2014. "Joint probabilistic projection of female and male life expectancy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(27), pages 795-822.
    8. John Bongaarts, 2014. "Trends in Causes of Death in Low-Mortality Countries: Implications for Mortality Projections," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 40(2), pages 189-212, June.
    9. Cristina Belles-Obrero & Sergi Jiménez-Martín & Judit Vall Castello, 2019. "Education and Gender Differences in Mortality Rates," Studies on the Spanish Economy 2019-05, FEDEA.
    10. Louise Sundberg & Neda Agahi & Johan Fritzell & Stefan Fors, 2018. "Why is the gender gap in life expectancy decreasing? The impact of age- and cause-specific mortality in Sweden 1997–2014," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 63(6), pages 673-681, July.
    11. Lenny Stoeldraijer & Coen van Duin & Leo van Wissen & Fanny Janssen, 2013. "Impact of different mortality forecasting methods and explicit assumptions on projected future life expectancy: The case of the Netherlands," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(13), pages 323-354.
    12. Konstantinos N. Zafeiris, 2020. "Gender differences in life expectancy at birth in Greece 1994–2017," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 73-89, March.
    13. James W. Vaupel, 2009. "Lively Questions for Demographers about Death at Older Ages," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 35(2), pages 347-356, June.
    14. Fanny Janssen & Leo Wissen & Anton Kunst, 2013. "Including the Smoking Epidemic in Internationally Coherent Mortality Projections," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(4), pages 1341-1362, August.
    15. Fanny Janssen & Alette Spriensma, 2012. "The contribution of smoking to regional mortality differences in the Netherlands," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 27(9), pages 233-260.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    mortality; forecasting; smoking; sex differences; forecast;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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