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World Urbanization Prospects

Author

Listed:
  • Philippe Bocquier

    (Université catholique de Louvain)

Abstract

This paper proposes to critically examine the United Nations projections on urbanisation. Both the estimates of current trends based on national data and the method of projection are evaluated. The theory of mobility transition is used as an alternative hypothesis. Projections are proposed using a polynomial model and compared to the UN projections, which are based on a linear model. The conclusion is that UN projections may overestimate the urban population for the year 2030 by almost one billion, or 19% in relative term. The overestimation would be particularly more pronounced for developing countries and may exceed 30% in Africa, India and Oceania.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Bocquier, 2005. "World Urbanization Prospects," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 12(9), pages 197-236.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:12:y:2005:i:9
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2005.12.9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Davis, James C. & Henderson, J. Vernon, 2003. "Evidence on the political economy of the urbanization process," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 98-125, January.
    2. Cohen, Barney, 2004. "Urban Growth in Developing Countries: A Review of Current Trends and a Caution Regarding Existing Forecasts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-51, January.
    3. Zai Liang, 2001. "The Age of Migration in China," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(3), pages 499-524, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Loren B Landau, 2018. "Friendship fears and communities of convenience in Africa’s urban estuaries: Connection as measure of urban condition," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 55(3), pages 505-521, February.
    2. World Bank, 2009. "The Urban Transition in Tanzania," World Bank Publications - Reports 18604, The World Bank Group.
    3. Neil Brenner & Christian Schmid, 2014. "The ‘Urban Age’ in Question," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3), pages 731-755, May.
    4. Dorcas Idowu & Wendy Zhou, 2023. "Global Megacities and Frequent Floods: Correlation between Urban Expansion Patterns and Urban Flood Hazards," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-19, January.
    5. Etebong PC, 2018. "Demography in Nigeria: Problems and Prospects," Biostatistics and Biometrics Open Access Journal, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 5(1), pages 25-30, February.
    6. World Bank, 2009. "Mozambique - Municipal Development in Mozambique : Lessons from the First Decade - Full report," World Bank Publications - Reports 3102, The World Bank Group.
    7. Charlotte Guénard & Sandrine Mesplé-Somps, 2004. "Measuring inequalities: Do the surveys give the real picture? Study of two surveys in Cote d’Ivoire and Madagascar," Working Papers DT/2004/13, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation), revised Dec 2004.
    8. Philippe Bocquier & Sandra Brée, 2018. "A regional perspective on the economic determinants of urban transition in 19th-century France," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(50), pages 1535-1576.
    9. Yeboah, F. Kwame & Jayne, T.S., 2016. "Africa’S Evolving Employment Structure," Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security Policy Research Papers 259511, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security (FSP).
    10. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Tarun Khanna & Patrick Salyer, 2007. "Urban Settlement: Data, Measures, and Trends," PGDA Working Papers 2907, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    11. Jayne, T. S. & Holtzman, John S. & Yeboah, Felix Kwame & Anderson, Jock R. & Oehmke, James F., 2016. "Agri-Food Systems and Youth Livelihoods in Sub-Saharan Africa," Food Security International Development Working Papers 249276, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    12. Ali S. Alghamdi, 2021. "Performance Enhancement of Roof-Mounted Photovoltaic System: Artificial Neural Network Optimization of Ground Coverage Ratio," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-18, March.
    13. Fan Fei & Yan Wang & Xiaoyun Jia, 2022. "Assessment of the Mechanisms of Summer Thermal Environment of Waterfront Space in China’s Cold Regions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-23, February.
    14. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Tarun Khanna & Patrick Salyer, 2007. "Urban Settlement: Data, Measures, and Trends," PGDA Working Papers 2907, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    15. Ashira Menashe‐Oren & Philippe Bocquier, 2021. "Urbanization Is No Longer Driven by Migration in Low‐ and Middle‐Income Countries (1985–2015)," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(3), pages 639-663, September.
    16. Stefano Salata & Elisabetta Peccol & Oscar Borsato, 2019. "A Framework to Evaluate Land Take Control Policy Efficiency in Friuli Venezia Giulia, Italy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-18, November.
    17. Headey, Derek & Bezemer, Dirk & Hazell, Peter B., 2008. "Agricultural exit problems: Causes and consequences," IFPRI discussion papers 802, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    18. Mathias Lerch, 2017. "Urban and rural fertility transitions in the developing world: a cohort perspective," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2017-011, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    19. Carren Ginsburg & Philippe Bocquier & Donatien Beguy & Sulaimon Afolabi & Orvalho Augusto & Karim Derra & Frank Odhiambo & Mark Otiende & Abdramane B. Soura & Pascal Zabre & Michael White & Mark Colli, 2016. "Human capital on the move: Education as a determinant of internal migration in selected INDEPTH surveillance populations in Africa," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 34(30), pages 845-884.
    20. Potts, Deborah, 2012. "Challenging the Myths of Urban Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Evidence from Nigeria," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 1382-1393.
    21. Jayne, T.S. & Chamberlin, Jordan & Headey, Derek D., 2014. "Land pressures, the evolution of farming systems, and development strategies in Africa: A synthesis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-17.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    developed countries; developing countries; environment; projections; urbanization; model; poverty; urban transition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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