IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/dem/demres/v12y2005i9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

World Urbanization Prospects

Author

Listed:
  • Philippe Bocquier

    (Université catholique de Louvain)

Abstract

This paper proposes to critically examine the United Nations projections on urbanisation. Both the estimates of current trends based on national data and the method of projection are evaluated. The theory of mobility transition is used as an alternative hypothesis. Projections are proposed using a polynomial model and compared to the UN projections, which are based on a linear model. The conclusion is that UN projections may overestimate the urban population for the year 2030 by almost one billion, or 19% in relative term. The overestimation would be particularly more pronounced for developing countries and may exceed 30% in Africa, India and Oceania.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Bocquier, 2005. "World Urbanization Prospects," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 12(9), pages 197-236.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:12:y:2005:i:9
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2005.12.9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol12/9/12-9.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4054/DemRes.2005.12.9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Davis, James C. & Henderson, J. Vernon, 2003. "Evidence on the political economy of the urbanization process," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 98-125, January.
    2. Cohen, Barney, 2004. "Urban Growth in Developing Countries: A Review of Current Trends and a Caution Regarding Existing Forecasts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-51, January.
    3. Zai Liang, 2001. "The Age of Migration in China," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(3), pages 499-524, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Etebong PC, 2018. "Demography in Nigeria: Problems and Prospects," Biostatistics and Biometrics Open Access Journal, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 5(1), pages 25-30, February.
    2. Charlotte Guénard & Sandrine Mesplé-Somps, 2004. "Measuring inequalities: Do the surveys give the real picture? Study of two surveys in Cote d’Ivoire and Madagascar," Working Papers DT/2004/13, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation), revised Dec 2004.
    3. Loren B Landau, 2018. "Friendship fears and communities of convenience in Africa’s urban estuaries: Connection as measure of urban condition," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 55(3), pages 505-521, February.
    4. World Bank, 2009. "Mozambique - Municipal Development in Mozambique : Lessons from the First Decade - Full report," World Bank Publications - Reports 3102, The World Bank Group.
    5. Mathias Lerch, 2017. "Urban and rural fertility transitions in the developing world: a cohort perspective," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2017-011, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    6. Yeboah, F. Kwame & Jayne, T.S., 2016. "Africa’s Evolving Employment Structure," Food Security International Development Working Papers 246956, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    7. Potts, Deborah, 2012. "Challenging the Myths of Urban Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Evidence from Nigeria," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 1382-1393.
    8. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Tarun Khanna & Patrick Salyer, 2007. "Urban Settlement: Data, Measures, and Trends," PGDA Working Papers 2907, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    9. Ashira Menashe‐Oren & Philippe Bocquier, 2021. "Urbanization Is No Longer Driven by Migration in Low‐ and Middle‐Income Countries (1985–2015)," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(3), pages 639-663, September.
    10. World Bank, 2009. "The Urban Transition in Tanzania," World Bank Publications - Reports 18604, The World Bank Group.
    11. Stefano Salata & Elisabetta Peccol & Oscar Borsato, 2019. "A Framework to Evaluate Land Take Control Policy Efficiency in Friuli Venezia Giulia, Italy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-18, November.
    12. Neil Brenner & Christian Schmid, 2014. "The ‘Urban Age’ in Question," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3), pages 731-755, May.
    13. Dorcas Idowu & Wendy Zhou, 2023. "Global Megacities and Frequent Floods: Correlation between Urban Expansion Patterns and Urban Flood Hazards," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-19, January.
    14. Carren Ginsburg & Philippe Bocquier & Donatien Beguy & Sulaimon Afolabi & Orvalho Augusto & Karim Derra & Frank Odhiambo & Mark Otiende & Abdramane B. Soura & Pascal Zabre & Michael White & Mark Colli, 2016. "Human capital on the move: Education as a determinant of internal migration in selected INDEPTH surveillance populations in Africa," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 34(30), pages 845-884.
    15. Jayne, T.S. & Chamberlin, Jordan & Headey, Derek D., 2014. "Land pressures, the evolution of farming systems, and development strategies in Africa: A synthesis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-17.
    16. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Tarun Khanna & Patrick Salyer, 2007. "Urban Settlement: Data, Measures, and Trends," PGDA Working Papers 2907, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    17. Philippe Bocquier & Sandra Brée, 2018. "A regional perspective on the economic determinants of urban transition in 19th-century France," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(50), pages 1535-1576.
    18. Headey, Derek & Bezemer, Dirk & Hazell, Peter B., 2008. "Agricultural exit problems: Causes and consequences," IFPRI discussion papers 802, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    19. Jayne, T. S. & Holtzman, John S. & Yeboah, Felix Kwame & Anderson, Jock R. & Oehmke, James F., 2016. "Agri-Food Systems and Youth Livelihoods in Sub-Saharan Africa," Food Security International Development Working Papers 249276, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    20. Ali S. Alghamdi, 2021. "Performance Enhancement of Roof-Mounted Photovoltaic System: Artificial Neural Network Optimization of Ground Coverage Ratio," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-18, March.
    21. Fan Fei & Yan Wang & Xiaoyun Jia, 2022. "Assessment of the Mechanisms of Summer Thermal Environment of Waterfront Space in China’s Cold Regions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-23, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tie-Ying Liu & Chi-Wei Su & Xu-Zhao Jiang, 2016. "Is China’S Urbanization Convergent?," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(05), pages 1-18, December.
    2. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Tarun Khanna & Patrick Salyer, 2007. "Urban Settlement: Data, Measures, and Trends," PGDA Working Papers 2907, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    3. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4463 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Tarun Khanna & Patrick Salyer, 2007. "Urban Settlement: Data, Measures, and Trends," PGDA Working Papers 2907, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    5. Cris Beauchemin & Philippe Bocquier, 2004. "Migration and Urbanisation in Francophone West Africa: An Overview of the Recent Empirical Evidence," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 41(11), pages 2245-2272, October.
    6. María Ayuda & Fernando Collantes & Vicente Pinilla, 2010. "From locational fundamentals to increasing returns: the spatial concentration of population in Spain, 1787–2000," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 25-50, March.
    7. Canavire-Bacarreza, Gustavo & Martínez-Vázquez, Jorge & Vulovic, Violeta, 2013. "Taxation and Economic Growth in Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4583, Inter-American Development Bank.
    8. Zhen Li & Zai Liang, 2016. "Gender and job mobility among rural to urban temporary migrants in the Pearl River Delta in China," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(16), pages 3455-3471, December.
    9. BERTINELLI, Luisito & STROBL, Eric, 2003. "Urbanization, urban concentration and economic growth in developing countries," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2003076, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    10. Nan Zhang & Melissa M. Lee, 2020. "Literacy and State–Society Interactions in Nineteenth‐Century France," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(4), pages 1001-1016, October.
    11. Donatella, Baiardi & Claudio, Morana, 2015. "Financial deepening and income distribution inequality in the euro area," Working Papers 316, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 04 Dec 2015.
    12. Barrios, Salvador & Bertinelli, Luisito & Strobl, Eric, 2006. "Climatic change and rural-urban migration: The case of sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 357-371, November.
    13. Wang, Bo & Li, Fan & Feng, Shuyi & Shen, Tong, 2020. "Transfer of development rights, farmland preservation, and economic growth: a case study of Chongqing’s land quotas trading program," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    14. Frederick van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2008. "Globalization and the rise of mega-cities in the developing world," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 1(3), pages 477-501.
    15. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6ggbvnr6munghes9ocq36eaai is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Filipe R. Campante & Quoc-Anh Do, 2014. "Isolated Capital Cities, Accountability, and Corruption: Evidence from US States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2456-2481, August.
    17. Zhen Yang & Jun Lei & Jian-Gang Li, 2019. "Identifying the Determinants of Urbanization in Prefecture-Level Cities in China: A Quantitative Analysis Based on Spatial Production Theory," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-18, February.
    18. Fikri Zul Fahmi, 2015. "Regional Distribution of Creative and Cultural Industries in Indonesia," ERSA conference papers ersa15p914, European Regional Science Association.
    19. Dusan Paredes Araya & Tomothy M Komarek, 2013. "Spatial Income Inequality in Chile and the Rol of Spatial Labor Sorting," Documentos de Trabajo en Economia y Ciencia Regional 46, Universidad Catolica del Norte, Chile, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2013.
    20. Zheng Mu & Wei-Jun Jean Yeung, 2018. "For Money or for a Life: A Mixed-Method Study on Migration and Time Use in China," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 139(1), pages 347-379, August.
    21. Gagnon, Jason & Xenogiani, Theodora & Xing, Chunbing, 2009. "Are all migrants really worse off in urban labour markets: new empirical evidence from China," MPRA Paper 16109, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Laurent Parrot & Clovis Dongmo & Michel Ndoumbé & Christine Poubom, 2008. "Horticulture, livelihoods, and urban transition in Africa: evidence from South‐West Cameroon," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(2), pages 245-256, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    developed countries; developing countries; environment; projections; urbanization; model; poverty; urban transition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:12:y:2005:i:9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Editorial Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.