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The Eurozone Yield Curve Shape During Covid19: A Projection Of Investment And Macroeconomic Expectations

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  • Vladislav Lyubenov

    (D. A. Tsenov Academy of Economics)

Abstract

The aim of this article is to provide a substantiated explanation of the shape of the yield curve in relation to the current theoretical reasoning and empirical data regarding the macroeconomic situation and the bond market. The object of research is the yield curve of government securities compounded from the average yields of AAA-rated government securities issued by euro area member states. The first part of the article presents the underlying literature and the theoretical foundations of the research hypotheses as well as the research methodology used. The second part addresses the spot and the forward yield curves in March 2021. The third part presents various empirical data and analyses the development of the bond market during the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Vladislav Lyubenov, 2021. "The Eurozone Yield Curve Shape During Covid19: A Projection Of Investment And Macroeconomic Expectations," Economic Archive, D. A. Tsenov Academy of Economics, Svishtov, Bulgaria, issue 4 Year 20, pages 67-90.
    • Handle: RePEc:dat:earchi:y:2021:i:4:p:67-90
    as

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10610/4606
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992 - 1994," NBER Working Papers 4871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1988. "The Information in the Term Structure: Some Further Results," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 307-314, October-D.
    3. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514.
    4. Metody Kanev, 2021. "Capitalism Against Itself (Critical Views And Insights)," Economic Archive, D. A. Tsenov Academy of Economics, Svishtov, Bulgaria, issue 4 Year 20, pages 3-21.
    5. Boyko Petev, 2020. "Tax Fraud as Security Threat," Economic Archive, D. A. Tsenov Academy of Economics, Svishtov, Bulgaria, issue 4 Year 20, pages 70-84.
    6. Fama, Eugene F & Bliss, Robert R, 1987. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 680-692, September.
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