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Eliciting Beliefs as Distributions in Online Surveys

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  • Leemann, Lucas
  • Stoetzer, Lukas F.
  • Traunmüller, Richard

Abstract

Citizens’ beliefs about uncertain events are fundamental variables in many areas of political science. While beliefs are often conceptualized in the form of distributions, obtaining reliable measures in terms of full probability densities is a difficult task. In this letter, we ask if there is an effective way of eliciting beliefs as distributions in the context of online surveys. Relying on experimental evidence, we evaluate the performance of five different elicitation methods designed to capture citizens’ uncertain expectations. Our results suggest that an elicitation method originally proposed by Manski (2009) performs well. It measures average citizens’ subjective belief distributions reliably and is easily implemented in the context of regular (online) surveys. We expect that a wider use of this method will lead to considerable improvements in the study of citizens’ expectations and beliefs.

Suggested Citation

  • Leemann, Lucas & Stoetzer, Lukas F. & Traunmüller, Richard, 2021. "Eliciting Beliefs as Distributions in Online Surveys," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(4), pages 541-553, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:polals:v:29:y:2021:i:4:p:541-553_7
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    Cited by:

    1. Paolo Crosetto & Thomas De Haan, 2022. "Comparing input interfaces to elicit belief distributions," Working Papers 2022-01, Grenoble Applied Economics Laboratory (GAEL).
    2. Canen, Nathan & Chakraborty, Anujit, 2023. "Belief elicitation in political protest experiments: When the mode does not teach us about incentives to protest," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 320-331.
    3. Gala, Kaushik & Valladares, Carlos D. & Mueller, Brandon A., 2023. "Students' assumptions of Entrepreneurs’ performance: The paradox of excess entry and missed opportunity," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).

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