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Empirical Implications of Signaling Models: Estimation of Belief Updating in International Crisis Bargaining

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  • Whang, Taehee

Abstract

Signaling models are ubiquitous in political science. An essential characteristic of these models is that actors can update their beliefs about their opponents. An actor observes the behavior of his opponent, and this behavior functions as a signal that allows the actor to learn more about his opponent's true “type.” As a result, the actor is able to adapt his own behavior. Current statistical models of strategic choice based on perfect Bayesian equilibrium, however, allow for very little, if any, belief updating. I explain why current models allow for little updating and offer in their stead a new, fully strategic choice estimator that calculates the correct amount of belief updating.

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  • Whang, Taehee, 2010. "Empirical Implications of Signaling Models: Estimation of Belief Updating in International Crisis Bargaining," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 381-402, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:polals:v:18:y:2010:i:03:p:381-402_01
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    Cited by:

    1. Taehee Whang & Hannah June Kim, 2015. "International Signaling and Economic Sanctions," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 427-452, May.
    2. Kristian Skrede Gleditsch & Simon Hug & Livia Isabella Schubiger & Julian Wucherpfennig, 2011. "International Conventions and Non-State Actors: Selection, Signaling, and Reputation Effects," HiCN Working Papers 108, Households in Conflict Network.
    3. Yuleng Zeng, 2020. "Bluff to peace: How economic dependence promotes peace despite increasing deception and uncertainty," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(6), pages 633-654, November.
    4. Muhammet A. Bas, 2012. "Measuring Uncertainty in International Relations: Heteroskedastic Strategic Models," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 29(5), pages 490-520, November.

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