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Strategic Interaction and Interstate Crises: A Bayesian Quantal Response Estimator for Incomplete Information Games

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  • Esarey, Justin
  • Mukherjee, Bumba
  • Moore, Will H.

Abstract

Private information characteristics like resolve and audience costs are powerful influences over strategic international behavior, especially crisis bargaining. As a consequence, states face asymmetric information when interacting with one another and will presumably try to learn about each others' private characteristics by observing each others' behavior. A satisfying statistical treatment would account for the existence of asymmetric information and model the learning process. This study develops a formal and statistical framework for incomplete information games that we term the Bayesian Quantal Response Equilibrium Model (BQRE model). Our BQRE model offers three advantages over existing work: it directly incorporates asymmetric information into the statistical model's structure, estimates the influence of private information characteristics on behavior, and mimics the temporal learning process that we believe takes place in international politics.

Suggested Citation

  • Esarey, Justin & Mukherjee, Bumba & Moore, Will H., 2008. "Strategic Interaction and Interstate Crises: A Bayesian Quantal Response Estimator for Incomplete Information Games," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 250-273, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:polals:v:16:y:2008:i:03:p:250-273_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Taehee Whang & Hannah June Kim, 2015. "International Signaling and Economic Sanctions," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 427-452, May.
    2. Muhammet A Bas & Curtis S Signorino & Taehee Whang, 2014. "Knowing one’s future preferences: A correlated agent model with Bayesian updating," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 26(1), pages 3-34, January.
    3. Kristian Skrede Gleditsch & Simon Hug & Livia Isabella Schubiger & Julian Wucherpfennig, 2011. "International Conventions and Non-State Actors: Selection, Signaling, and Reputation Effects," HiCN Working Papers 108, Households in Conflict Network.
    4. Muhammet A. Bas, 2012. "Measuring Uncertainty in International Relations: Heteroskedastic Strategic Models," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 29(5), pages 490-520, November.
    5. Amos Golan & James Bono, 2010. "Identifying Strategies and Beliefs without Rationality Assumptions," Working Papers 2010-12, American University, Department of Economics.

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