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A Seemingly Unrelated Regression Model for Analyzing Multiparty Elections

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  • Jackson, John E.

Abstract

This paper develops an estimator for models of election returns in multiparty elections. It shares the same functional formas the Katz—King estimator but is computationally simpler, can be used with any number of parties, and is based on more conventional distributional assumptions. Small sample properties of the estimator are derived, which makes it particularly useful in many of the applications where there are a relatively small number of voting districts. The distributional assumptions are contained in two elements. The first treats the observed votes as the outcomes resulting from sampling the voters in each district. The second stochastic element arises from the usual treatment of the stochastic term in a regression model, namely, the inability of the included variables and the linear form to match the underlying process perfectly. The model is then used to analyze the 1993 Polish parliamentary elections. The results from this analysis are used to develop Monte Carlo experiments comparing several different yet feasible estimators. The conclusion is that a number of accessible estimators, including the standard seemingly unrelated regression model and the Beck-Katz model with panel-corrected standard errors, are all good choices.

Suggested Citation

  • Jackson, John E., 2002. "A Seemingly Unrelated Regression Model for Analyzing Multiparty Elections," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 49-65, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:polals:v:10:y:2002:i:01:p:49-65_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Bogatyrev, Konstantin & Stoetzer, Lukas, 2024. "Synthetic Control Methods for Proportions," OSF Preprints brhd3, Center for Open Science.
    2. Fidrmuc, Jan & Doyle, Orla, 2004. "Voice of the Diaspora: An Analysis of Migrant Voting Behaviour," CEPR Discussion Papers 4619, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Doyle, Orla & Walsh, Patrick Paul, 2005. "Did Political Constraints Bind During Transition? Evidence from Czech Elections 1990-2002," IZA Discussion Papers 1719, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. John Witte & David Weimer & Arnold Shober & Paul Schlomer, 2007. "The performance of charter schools in Wisconsin," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 557-573.
    5. Ali Kagalwala & Andrew Q. Philips & Guy D. Whitten, 2021. "What About the Rest of the Pie? A Dynamic Compositional Approach to Modeling Inequality," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1534-1552, July.
    6. repec:tcd:wpaper:tep15 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Scott Basinger & Damon Cann & Michael Ensley, 2012. "Voter response to congressional campaigns: new techniques for analyzing aggregate electoral behavior," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 771-792, March.
    8. Smeets, Valerie & Warzynski, Frederic, 2006. "Job creation, job destruction and voting behavior in Poland," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 503-519, June.
    9. repec:bla:etrans:v:15:y:2007:i::p:575-601 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Olga Popova, 2010. "Corruption, Voting and Employment Status: Evidence from Russian Parliamentary Elections," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp428, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.

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