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A Long View of the UK Business Cycle

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  • Chadha, Jagjit S.
  • Nolan, Charles

Abstract

We outline a number of ‘stylised’ facts on the UK business cycle obtained from analysis of the long-run UK annual dataset. The findings are to some extent standard. Consumption and investment are pro-cyclical, with productivity playing a dominant role in explaining business cycle fluctuations at all horizons. Money neutrality obtains over the long run but there is clear evidence of non-neutrality over the short run, particularly at the business cycle frequencies. Business cycle relationships with the external sector via the real exchange rate and current account are notable. Postwar, the price level is counter-cyclical and real wages are pro-cyclical, as are nominal interest rates. Modern general equilibrium macroeconomic models capture many of these patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Chadha, Jagjit S. & Nolan, Charles, 2002. "A Long View of the UK Business Cycle," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 182, pages 72-89, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:nierev:v:182:y:2002:i::p:72-89_8
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    Cited by:

    1. U. Michael Bergman & Lars Jonung, 2011. "Business Cycle Synchronization In Europe: Evidence From The Scandinavian Currency Union," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(2), pages 268-292, March.
    2. Henk Kranendonk & Jan Bonenkamp & Johan Verbruggen, 2004. "A leading indicator for the Dutch economy; methodological and empirical revision of the CPB system," CPB Discussion Paper 32, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    3. Herman De Jong & Pieter Woltjer, 2011. "Depression dynamics: a new estimate of the Anglo‐American manufacturing productivity gap in the interwar period," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 64(2), pages 472-492, May.
    4. Henk Kranendonk & Jan Bonenkamp & Johan Verbruggen, 2004. "A leading indicator for the Dutch economy; methodological and empirical revision of the CPB system," CPB Discussion Paper 32.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    5. Stephen Broadberry & Jagjit S. Chadha & Jason Lennard & Ryland Thomas, 2023. "Dating business cycles in the United Kingdom, 1700–2010," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(4), pages 1141-1162, November.
    6. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2008. "Understanding the importance of permanent and transitory shocks at business cycle horizons for the UK," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(12), pages 2879-2888.
    7. repec:ehl:lserod:56407 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Gerba, Eddie, 2015. "Have the US macro-financial linkages changed? The balance sheet dimension," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 59886, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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