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The World Economy

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  • Morgan, Julian
  • Pain, Nigel

Abstract

There are now widespread signs that activity in the world economy has slowed sharply. This slowdown has been particularly marked within Europe, where our estimates suggest that the European Union economies may have expanded by only some 0.6 per cent in the second half of last year. Elsewhere, the Japanese economy has still to emerge from recession and growth has possibly declined in the United States to a little below trend levels (Chart 1). The perception of recent growth in the US has also changed significantly as a result of the recent rebasing of their national accounts, with the growth of real GDP in 1995 now projected to be between 2–2 1/4 per cent rather than 3 1/4 per cent as shown in our previous forecast. We discuss this issue in more detail below. Overall growth in the OECD region is now projected at 2 per cent in 1995, after 2.6 per cent in 1994. This slowdown has been reflected elsewhere within the world economy, with total world trade growth estimated to have declined to around 6 3/4 per cent last year, and the prices of many industrial raw materials having begun to weaken. For 1996, we presently expect growth of 2 1/4 per cent in the OECD region and growth of 2 per cent in both Europe and the United States.

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  • Morgan, Julian & Pain, Nigel, 1996. "The World Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 155, pages 26-55, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:nierev:v:155:y:1996:i::p:26-55_3
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    Cited by:

    1. Baker, Terence J. & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number PRS28.
    2. Studer, Roman, 2008. "India and the Great Divergence: Assessing the Efficiency of Grain Markets in Eighteenth- and Nineteenth-Century India," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 393-437, June.
    3. José M. Albert & Marta R. Casanova & Jorge Mateu & Vicente Orts, 2013. "Distance-Based Methods: An improvement of Ripley’s K function vs. the K density function," Working Papers 2013/07, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    4. Ortiz Valverde, Gabriela & Latorre, María C., 2020. "A short- and long-term general equilibrium analysis of the impact of Brexit," Conference papers 333192, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Anja Shortland & Sourafel Girma, 2005. "The Political Economy of Financial Liberalisation," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 39, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    6. Bulent Esiyok, 2015. "Does Inward Foreign Direct Investment Increase Imports To Turkey? An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal Articles, Center For Economic Analyses, pages 23-35, June.
    7. Morgenroth, Edgar & FitzGerald, John & FitzGerald, John, 2006. "Summary and Conclusions," Book Chapters, in: Morgenroth, Edgar (ed.),Ex-Ante Evaluation of the Investment Priorities for the National Development Plan 2007-2013, chapter 24, pages 317-333, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
      • Baker, Terence J. & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Summary and Conclusions," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 12, pages 339-352, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    8. Honohan, Patrick & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Adapting to Regime Change," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, pages 10-36, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    9. Shigeru Otsubo*Masahiko Tsutsumi, 1996. "Is the"Japan Problem"real? How problems in Japan's financial sector could affect developing regions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1682, The World Bank.
    10. Duggan, Delma & FitzGerald, John & Johnston, Justin & Kelly, Jane & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "The Macroeconomy in Stable Conditions," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, pages 50-86, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    11. Köllő, János, 2013. "Patterns of Integration: Low Educated People and their Jobs in Norway, Italy and Hungary," IZA Discussion Papers 7632, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Baker, Terence J. & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Introduction," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 1, pages 1-9, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    13. Palmer, Edward, 2001. "The New Swedish Pension System," Discussion Paper 36, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    14. J nos Kollo, 2013. "Patterns of Integration: Low Educated People and their Jobs in Norway, Italy and Hungary," Budapest Working Papers on the Labour Market 1315, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    15. Geomina Turlea & Cezar Mereuta, 2002. "Markets and networks in Romania - life after disorganisation," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 15, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
    16. FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Overall Macroeconomic Assessment," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 6, pages 143-169, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    17. Duggan, Delma & FitzGerald, John & Johnston, Justin & Kavanagh, Ella & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Macroeconomic Response to Shocks," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 5, pages 105-142, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    18. Diallo Mamadou Saliou Kokouma & Kaning Xu, 2013. "Attracting Chinese Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to Africa: Determinants and Policies - The Case of Guinea," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 4(4), pages 52-71, October.
    19. Baker, Terence J. & Duffy, David & Duggan, Delma & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "The Manufacturing Sector," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 7, pages 174-221, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    20. Kelly, Jane & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "The Tourism Sector," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 11, pages 321-338, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

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