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The World Economy

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  • Barrell, Ray
  • Pain, Nigel
  • Morgan, Julian

Abstract

The pattern of real exchange rates has changed significantly since February. Our currency forecasts at that time were in line with the implied forward rates in financial markets, with the yen projected to appreciate slowly against the dollar, rising from 100 to the dollar in the first quarter of 1995 to around 90 to the dollar in 1997. Within Europe, we projected a further small appreciation of the D-mark and a continuing depreciation of the lira and the peseta. Overall, we expected ‘real exchange rates to stay approximately stable’. In the event, the yen rose strongly in March and April to around 80 to the dollar, while the D-mark rose from around 1.50 to 1.38 to the dollar. At the same time, the lira/D-mark exchange rate fell by over 10 per cent and the Exchange Rate Mechanism was placed under renewed strain, with both the peseta and the escudo being devalued. As a result, the Japanese and US real effective exchange rates are respectively 15 per cent higher and 7 per cent lower than we had previously expected. These developments also had a wider impact on financial markets. The discount rate was cut in Japan and Germany and long-term rates rose in Italy and Spain. Equity prices fell sharply in those countries with appreciating currencies and jumped up in most of the countries whose exchange rate has depreciated.

Suggested Citation

  • Barrell, Ray & Pain, Nigel & Morgan, Julian, 1995. "The World Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 152, pages 29-59, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:nierev:v:152:y:1995:i::p:29-59_4
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    Cited by:

    1. Baker, Terence J. & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number PRS28.
    2. Studer, Roman, 2008. "India and the Great Divergence: Assessing the Efficiency of Grain Markets in Eighteenth- and Nineteenth-Century India," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 393-437, June.
    3. José M. Albert & Marta R. Casanova & Jorge Mateu & Vicente Orts, 2013. "Distance-Based Methods: An improvement of Ripley’s K function vs. the K density function," Working Papers 2013/07, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    4. Ortiz Valverde, Gabriela & Latorre, María C., 2020. "A short- and long-term general equilibrium analysis of the impact of Brexit," Conference papers 333192, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Anja Shortland & Sourafel Girma, 2005. "The Political Economy of Financial Liberalisation," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 39, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    6. Bulent Esiyok, 2015. "Does Inward Foreign Direct Investment Increase Imports To Turkey? An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal Articles, Center For Economic Analyses, pages 23-35, June.
    7. Morgenroth, Edgar & FitzGerald, John & FitzGerald, John, 2006. "Summary and Conclusions," Book Chapters, in: Morgenroth, Edgar (ed.),Ex-Ante Evaluation of the Investment Priorities for the National Development Plan 2007-2013, chapter 24, pages 317-333, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
      • Baker, Terence J. & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Summary and Conclusions," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 12, pages 339-352, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    8. Honohan, Patrick & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Adapting to Regime Change," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, pages 10-36, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    9. Shigeru Otsubo*Masahiko Tsutsumi, 1996. "Is the"Japan Problem"real? How problems in Japan's financial sector could affect developing regions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1682, The World Bank.
    10. Duggan, Delma & FitzGerald, John & Johnston, Justin & Kelly, Jane & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "The Macroeconomy in Stable Conditions," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, pages 50-86, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    11. Köllő, János, 2013. "Patterns of Integration: Low Educated People and their Jobs in Norway, Italy and Hungary," IZA Discussion Papers 7632, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Baker, Terence J. & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Introduction," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 1, pages 1-9, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    13. Palmer, Edward, 2001. "The New Swedish Pension System," Discussion Paper 36, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    14. J nos Kollo, 2013. "Patterns of Integration: Low Educated People and their Jobs in Norway, Italy and Hungary," Budapest Working Papers on the Labour Market 1315, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    15. Geomina Turlea & Cezar Mereuta, 2002. "Markets and networks in Romania - life after disorganisation," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 15, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
    16. FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Overall Macroeconomic Assessment," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 6, pages 143-169, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    17. Duggan, Delma & FitzGerald, John & Johnston, Justin & Kavanagh, Ella & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Macroeconomic Response to Shocks," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 5, pages 105-142, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    18. Diallo Mamadou Saliou Kokouma & Kaning Xu, 2013. "Attracting Chinese Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to Africa: Determinants and Policies - The Case of Guinea," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 4(4), pages 52-71, October.
    19. Baker, Terence J. & Duffy, David & Duggan, Delma & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "The Manufacturing Sector," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 7, pages 174-221, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    20. Kelly, Jane & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "The Tourism Sector," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 11, pages 321-338, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

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