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Robust Decision Theory And The Lucas Critique

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  • Marcellino, Massimiliano
  • Salmon, Mark

Abstract

In this paper, we reconsider the theoretical basis for the Lucas critique from the point of view of robust decision theory. We first emphasize that the Lucas critique rests on a weak theoretical paradigm in that it fails to consider the motivation for the policy change by the government and hence inconsistently assumes limited rationality by the government. When placed in a proper dynamic general equilibrium framework of a dynamic game between the government and the private sector, much of the force of the critique simply vanishes. We also reconsider the critique by adopting an alternative theoretical paradigm and notion of rationality based on robust decision theory. This view of rationality might be regarded as more relevant than the nonrobust rationality employed by Lucas and, critically, it is one in which the Lucas critique can be shown simply not to apply, provided the private sector has adopted suitably robust decision rules.

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  • Marcellino, Massimiliano & Salmon, Mark, 2002. "Robust Decision Theory And The Lucas Critique," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 167-185, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:6:y:2002:i:01:p:167-185_02
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    Cited by:

    1. Pataracchia, B., 2011. "Ambiguity and Volatility : Asset Pricing Implications," Other publications TiSEM 78d5fd61-8874-444a-84ea-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Ekaterina Pirozhkova, 2017. "Financial frictions and robust monetary policy in the models of New Keynesian framework," BCAM Working Papers 1701, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    3. Brock, William A. & Durlauf, Steven N. & West, Kenneth D., 2007. "Model uncertainty and policy evaluation: Some theory and empirics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 629-664, February.
    4. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf, 2004. "Elements of a Theory of Design Limits to Optimal Policy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(s1), pages 1-18, September.
    5. Katherine Moos, 2016. "The Transvaluation of the Theory of Economic Policy: The Lucas Critique Reconsidered," Working Papers 1603, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    6. Brock, William A. & Durlauf, Steven N., 2005. "Local robustness analysis: Theory and application," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 2067-2092, November.
    7. Gonzalez F. & Rodriguez A. & Gonzalez-Garcia J.R., 2005. "Uncertainty about the Persistence of Periods with Large Price Shocks and the Optimal Reaction of the Monetary Authority," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 402, Society for Computational Economics.
    8. Kasa, Kenneth, 2002. "Model Uncertainty, Robust Policies, And The Value Of Commitment," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 145-166, February.
    9. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2006. "Internal and external shocks in Hong Kong: Empirical evidence and policy options," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 56-75, January.
    10. Rodríguez Arnulfo & González Fidel & González García Jesús R., 2007. "Uncertainty about the Persistence of Cost-Push Shocks and the Optimal Reaction of the Monetary Authority," Working Papers 2007-05, Banco de México.
    11. Brock,W.A. & Durlauf,S.N., 2004. "Macroeconomics and model uncertainty," Working papers 20, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.

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