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Quantifying spillovers of coordinated investment stimulus in the EU

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  • Pfeiffer, Philipp
  • Varga, Janos
  • in ’t Veld, Jan

Abstract

In response to the recession brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic, EU-wide macroeconomic policy has launched an unprecedented coordinated fiscal expansion across the EU (Next Generation EU or NGEU), financed by issuing common debt. Given NGEU’s nature, it is essential to take fiscal spillovers into consideration when assessing the overall macroeconomic effects of this fiscal expansion. We quantify the effects of the additional public investment for all Member States in a rich macro-model with a trade structure. Our model suggests that, on average, GDP effects are around one-third larger when explicitly accounting for the spillover effects from individual-country measures. For small open economies with smaller NGEU allocations, spillover effects account for the bulk of the GDP impact. We also quantify key transmission channels.

Suggested Citation

  • Pfeiffer, Philipp & Varga, Janos & in ’t Veld, Jan, 2023. "Quantifying spillovers of coordinated investment stimulus in the EU," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(7), pages 1843-1865, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:27:y:2023:i:7:p:1843-1865_3
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Blotevogel, 2024. "Saving for stability: Greece’s Recovery and Resilience Plan and its impact on the external position," Working Papers 65, European Stability Mechanism, revised 19 Nov 2024.
    2. Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Benalal, Nicholai & Bouabdallah, Othman & De Stefani, Roberta & Dorrucci, Ettore & Jacquinot, Pascal & Modery, Wolfgang & Nerlich, Carolin & Rodríguez-Vives, Marta & Szörfi, Bél, 2024. "Four years into NextGenerationEU: what impact on the euro area economy," Occasional Paper Series 362, European Central Bank.
    3. Nerlich, Carolin & Köhler-Ulbrich, Petra & Andersson, Malin & Pasqua, Carlo & Abraham, Laurent & Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Emambakhsh, Tina & Ferrando, Annalisa & Grynberg, Charlotte & Groß, Johannes & H, 2025. "Investing in Europe’s green future: green investment needs, outlook and obstacles to funding the gap," Occasional Paper Series 367, European Central Bank.
    4. Zhang, Yunhan & Liu, Zhixin & Jin, Hao, 2025. "The domestic and spillover effects of fiscal consolidation: The role of fiscal instruments, exchange rate regimes, and capital controls," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).

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