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The Cyclicality Of Automatic And Discretionary Fiscal Policy: What Can Real-Time Data Tell Us?

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  • Bernoth, Kerstin
  • Hughes Hallett, Andrew
  • Lewis, John

Abstract

This paper develops a new methodology for estimating both the automatic and discretionary components of fiscal policy in one reaction function using the differences between real-time and ex post data. Discretionary policy should respond to information available to the policy maker at the time (real-time data), whereas automatic fiscal policy should respond to the true state of the economy at the time (proxied by the final data). We find that the intended discretionary response of fiscal policy to the cycle is counter-cyclical. Our estimates suggest that the automatic stabilizers are at the lower end of the range found in the related literature. This new methodology reduces the risk present in the conventional CAB approach that part of the discretionary actions may be wrongly attributed to automatic stabilizers. In that sense, automatic stabilizers are typically not as strong as usually claimed. This could be of particular use in countries where insufficient data exist to estimate structural budget sensitivities directly.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernoth, Kerstin & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Lewis, John, 2015. "The Cyclicality Of Automatic And Discretionary Fiscal Policy: What Can Real-Time Data Tell Us?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 221-243, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:19:y:2015:i:01:p:221-243_00
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Deleidi, Matteo & Iafrate, Francesca & Levrero, Enrico Sergio, 2020. "Public investment fiscal multipliers: An empirical assessment for European countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 354-365.
    2. Heimberger, Philipp, 2023. "The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: A meta-analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    3. Philipp Heimberger, 2022. "The Cyclical Behaviour of Fiscal Policy During the Covid-19 Crisis," wiiw Working Papers 220, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    4. Yutaka Kurihara, 2016. "Can the Disparity between GDP and GDP Forecast Cause Economic Instability? The Recent Japanese Case," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 2(8), pages 155-160, 08-2016.
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2016_021 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5a3rl1um0d9rdbe3itnk6f8m89 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Pierre Aldama & Jérôme Creel, 2020. "Asymmetric Macroeconomic Stabilization And Fiscal Consolidation In The Oecd And The Euro Area," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403071, HAL.
    8. Crowley, Patrick M. & Hudgins, David, 2015. "Euro area monetary and fiscal policy tracking design in the time-frequency domain," Research Discussion Papers 12/2015, Bank of Finland.
    9. Crowley, Patrick M. & Hudgins, David, 2016. "Analysis of the balance between U.S. monetary and fiscal policy using simulated wavelet-based optimal tracking control," Research Discussion Papers 21/2016, Bank of Finland.
    10. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2023. "A quest between fiscal and market discipline," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    11. Heimberger, Philipp, 2023. "This time truly is different: The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy during the Covid-19 crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    12. Andrew Hughes Hallett, 2012. "Alberto Alesina: The Science of Using Political Economy Concepts to Explain the Macroeconomic Landscape," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 40(4), pages 351-365, December.
    13. Bashar, Omar H.M.N. & Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "The cyclicality of fiscal policy: New evidence from unobserved components approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 222-234.
    14. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5a3rl1um0d9rdbe3itnk6f8m89 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2015_012 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. MATSUOKA, Hideaki & 松岡, 秀明, 2024. "Real-Time Detection of Hidden Fiscal Unsustainability in the EU," Discussion Papers 2024-02, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    17. Aldama, Pierre & Creel, Jérôme, 2022. "Real-time fiscal policy responses in the OECD from 1997 to 2018: Procyclical but sustainable?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    18. Thanh, Su Dinh & Canh, Nguyen Phuc, 2020. "Taxation and capital formation: Non-linear effects and asymmetry between developing and developed countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).

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