IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/macdyn/v11y2007i02p231-248_06.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Payment Uncertainty And The Productivity Slowdown

Author

Listed:
  • KOBAYASHI, KEIICHIRO

Abstract

This paper proposes a simple theory to explain the productivity slowdown observed in Japan during the 1990s. Under a forbearance policy by the government toward nonperforming loans, one keeping insolvent firms afloat, other economic agents become exposed to a higher risk of not being paid by their customers (payment uncertainty). It is shown that the payment uncertainty, working through a competitive market, causes an endogenous decline in the number of firms that are involved in the production of one good. Resulting disruptions of the division of labor among firms lower macroeconomic productivity. The performance of the model is compared with that of the Japanese economy in the 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Kobayashi, Keiichiro, 2007. "Payment Uncertainty And The Productivity Slowdown," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 231-248, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:11:y:2007:i:02:p:231-248_06
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1365100507060087/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Accounting for the Great Depression (technical appendix)," Working Papers 619, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    2. Lee E. Ohanian, 2002. "Why did productivity fall so much during the Great Depression?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 26(Spr).
    3. Lamont, Owen, 1995. "Corporate-Debt Overhang and Macroeconomic Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1106-1117, December.
    4. Olivier Blanchard & Michael Kremer, 1997. "Disorganization," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(4), pages 1091-1126.
    5. Anari, Ali & Kolari, James & Mason, Joseph, 2005. "Bank Asset Liquidation and the Propagation of the U.S. Great Depression," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 753-773, August.
    6. Dale W. Jorgenson & Kazuyuki Motohashi, 2003. "Economic Growth of Japan and the United States in the Information Age," Discussion papers 03015, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    7. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2000. "Balance-of-Payments Crises in Emerging Markets: Large Capital Inflows and Sovereign Governments," NBER Chapters, in: Currency Crises, pages 71-97, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2003. "Accounting for the Great Depression," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 27(Spr), pages 2-8.
    9. Kobayashi, Keiichiro & Inaba, Masaru, 2005. "Debt disorganization in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 151-169, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca & Andrzej Torój, 2019. "In Search of an Appropriate Lower Bound. The Zero Lower Bound vs. the Positive Lower Bound under Discretion and Commitment," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(4), pages 1028-1053, November.
    2. Agnese, Pablo & Sala, Hector, 2009. "The fading 1990s in Japan: Driving forces behind the unemployment upsurge," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 428-439, June.
    3. Andrzej Rzonca & Piotr Cizkowicz, 2014. "The effects of unconventional monetary policy: what do central banks not include in their models? / Skutki niekonwencjonalnej polityki pieniê¿nej: czego banki centralne nie uwzglêdniaj¹w swoich modela," mBank - CASE Seminar Proceedings 131, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    4. Agnese, Pablo, 2009. "Japan and her dealings with offshoring: An empirical analysis with aggregate data," IESE Research Papers D/793, IESE Business School.
    5. Keiichiro Kobayashi, 2006. "Payment uncertainty, the division of labor, and productivity declines in great depressions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(4), pages 715-741, October.
    6. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońcaz, 2017. "Are Major Central Banks Blinded By The Analytical Elegance Of Their Models? Possible Costs Of Unconventional Monetary Policy Measures," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(01), pages 87-108, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Keiichiro Kobayashi, 2006. "Payment uncertainty, the division of labor, and productivity declines in great depressions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(4), pages 715-741, October.
    2. Keiichiro Kobayashi & Masaru Inaba, 2006. "Borrowing constraints and protracted recessions," Discussion papers 06011, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Harrison, Sharon G. & Weder, Mark, 2006. "Did sunspot forces cause the Great Depression?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1327-1339, October.
    4. Mark Weder, 2006. "Some Observations on the Great Depression in Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(1), pages 113-133, February.
    5. AKIYOSHI Fumio & KOBAYASHI Keiichiro, 2007. "Bank Distress and Productivity of Borrowing Firms: Evidence from Japan," Discussion papers 07014, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    6. Nicolas L. Ziebarth, 2013. "Identifying the Effects of Bank Failures from a Natural Experiment in Mississippi during the Great Depression," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 81-101, January.
    7. Breitenlechner, Max & Mathy, Gabriel P. & Scharler, Johann, 2021. "Decomposing the U.S. Great Depression: How important were loan supply shocks?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Mark Weder, 2006. "A heliocentric journey into Germany's Great Depression," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 288-316, April.
    9. Slim BRIDJI, 2007. "Accounting for the French Great Depression," 2007 Meeting Papers 461, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Aoki, Shuhei, 2012. "A simple accounting framework for the effect of resource misallocation on aggregate productivity," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 473-494.
    11. Adnan Haider & Musleh ud Din & Ejaz Ghani, 2012. "Monetary Policy, Informality and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Developing Economy Vulnerable to External Shocks," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 609-681.
    12. Fernando del Río & Francisco‐Xavier Lores, 2023. "Accounting for the role of investment frictions in recessions," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(360), pages 1089-1118, October.
    13. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2017. "Business Cycle Accounting: Bulgaria after the introduction of the currency board arrangement (1999-2014)," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 14(2), pages 197-219.
    14. Clarke, Andrew J. & Johri, Alok, 2009. "Procyclical Solow Residuals Without Technology Shocks," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 366-389, June.
    15. Shu-Shiuan Lu, 2012. "East Asian growth experience revisited from the perspective of a neoclassical model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(3), pages 359-376, July.
    16. Ritschl, Albrecht & Ebell, Monique, 2007. "Real Origins of the Great Depression: Monopolistic Competition, Union Power, and the American Business Cycle in the 1920s," CEPR Discussion Papers 6146, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Kobayashi, Keiichiro & Inaba, Masaru, 2006. "Business cycle accounting for the Japanese economy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 418-440, December.
    18. Brian Snowdon, 2007. "The New Classical Counter-Revolution: False Path or Illuminating Complement?," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 541-562, Fall.
    19. Hevia, Constantino, 2014. "Emerging market fluctuations: What makes the difference?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 33-49.
    20. Özer Karagedikli & Troy Matheson & Christie Smith & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "RBCs AND DSGEs: THE COMPUTATIONAL APPROACH TO BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY AND EVIDENCE," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 113-136, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:11:y:2007:i:02:p:231-248_06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cambridge.org/mdy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.