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The Pressman-Wildavsky Paradox: Four Addenda or Why Models Based on Probability Theory Can Predict Implementation Success and Suggest Useful Tactical Advice for Implementers

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  • Bowen, Elinor R.

Abstract

Pressman and Wildavsky's Implementation occupies center stage in the developing literature about policy implementation, in part because of the analogy they drew between implementation processes and the multiplicative model from probability theory. This paper takes the relevance of probability theory further and considers the additive model from probability theory and conditional probabilities as well as the multiplicative model. This expanded coverage of probability theorems (1) leads to markedly increased optimism about the likelihood of successful implementation, (2) encompasses empirically reasonable tactics such as persistence, packaging of clearances, engineering bandwagons and policy reduction, and (3) generates advice to hopeful implementers – some of it non-obvious.

Suggested Citation

  • Bowen, Elinor R., 1982. "The Pressman-Wildavsky Paradox: Four Addenda or Why Models Based on Probability Theory Can Predict Implementation Success and Suggest Useful Tactical Advice for Implementers," Journal of Public Policy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jnlpup:v:2:y:1982:i:01:p:1-21_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Dramani Kipo-Sunyehzi, 2023. "Implementation Research in Developed and Developing Countries: an Analysis of the Trends and Directions," Public Organization Review, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 1259-1273, September.
    2. Manuel Fernández-García & Clemente J. Navarro & Irene Gómez-Ramirez, 2021. "Evaluating Territorial Targets of European Integrated Urban Policy. The URBAN and URBANA Initiatives in Spain (1994–2013)," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-18, September.
    3. Veale, Michael & Brass, Irina, 2019. "Administration by Algorithm? Public Management meets Public Sector Machine Learning," SocArXiv mwhnb, Center for Open Science.
    4. Kevin Mole, 2002. "Street-Level Technocracy in UK Small Business Support: Business Links, Personal Business Advisers, and the Small Business Service," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 20(2), pages 179-194, April.
    5. Hildebrand Sean, 2015. "Coerced Confusion? Local Emergency Policy Implementation After September 11," Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 273-298, June.

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