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Is there a limit to the size of the state? The scope conditions of Wagner's law

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  • Karceski, Steven M.
  • Kiser, Edgar

Abstract

We investigate the relationship between economic development and the growth of the state by testing Wagner's Law. We begin with a general test, and find it does not hold in all cases: it breaks down at higher levels of development and in more recent time periods. This suggests that Wagner's law has specific scope conditions, beyond which states do not continue to grow as economies grow. We use a series of models to explore the temporal scope of Wagner's law and the point at which state growth may hit a ceiling. We conclude limits on the growth of the state are set by limits on the capacity of states to increase taxation. States can avoid this problem temporarily by running budget deficits, but eventually accumulated debt forces them to cut expenditures. Spending is tied to tax revenue like a rubber band, it can stretch only so far before being pulled back.

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  • Karceski, Steven M. & Kiser, Edgar, 2020. "Is there a limit to the size of the state? The scope conditions of Wagner's law," Journal of Institutional Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 217-232, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jinsec:v:16:y:2020:i:2:p:217-232_8
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    Cited by:

    1. Olivier Jacques & David Weisstanner, 2022. "The Micro-Foundations of Permanent Austerity: Income Stagnation and the Decline of Taxability in Advanced Democracies," LIS Working papers 839, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    2. Olivier Jacques, 2021. "Classes and Taxes: Socio-Economic Status, Ideology and (Un)Willingness to Pay," CIRANO Working Papers 2021s-37, CIRANO.
    3. Philip Arestis & Hüseyin Şen & Ayşe Kaya, 2021. "On the linkage between government expenditure and output: empirics of the Keynesian view versus Wagner’s law," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 265-303, May.
    4. Solikin, Akhmad & Nizar, Muhammad Afdi, 2022. "Government Revenue and Government Spending Nexus: A Testing Hypothesis for Indonesia," MPRA Paper 118556, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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