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Equilibrium Price Dynamics of Emission Permits

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  • Hitzemann, Steffen
  • Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese

Abstract

This article presents a stochastic equilibrium model for environmental markets that allows us to study the characteristic properties of emission permit prices induced by the design of today’s cap-and-trade systems. We characterize emission permits as highly nonlinear contingent claims on economy-wide emissions and reveal their hybrid nature between investment and consumption assets. Our model makes predictions about the dynamics and volatility structure of emission permit prices, the forward price curve, and the implications for option pricing in this market. Empirical evidence from existing emissions markets shows that the model explains the stylized facts of emission permit prices and related derivatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Hitzemann, Steffen & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese, 2018. "Equilibrium Price Dynamics of Emission Permits," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 1653-1678, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:53:y:2018:i:04:p:1653-1678_00
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Estelle Cantillon & Aurélie Slechten, 2018. "Information Aggregation in Emissions Markets with Abatement," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 132, pages 53-79.
    2. St'ephane Cr'epey & Mekonnen Tadese & Gauthier Vermandel, 2024. "Sensitivity Analysis of emissions Markets: A Discrete-Time Radner Equilibrium Approach," Papers 2411.06185, arXiv.org.
    3. Yongyang Cai & Khyati Malik & Hyeseon Shin, 2023. "Dynamics of Global Emission Permit Prices and Regional Social Cost of Carbon under Noncooperation," Papers 2312.15563, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    4. Huang, Zhehao & Dong, Hao & Jia, Shuaishuai, 2022. "Equilibrium pricing for carbon emission in response to the target of carbon emission peaking," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    5. Liam Welsh & Sebastian Jaimungal, 2024. "Nash Equilibria in Greenhouse Gas Offset Credit Markets," Papers 2401.01427, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    6. Arvind Shrivats & Dena Firoozi & Sebastian Jaimungal, 2020. "A Mean-Field Game Approach to Equilibrium Pricing in Solar Renewable Energy Certificate Markets," Papers 2003.04938, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
    7. Arvind Shrivats & Sebastian Jaimungal, 2019. "Optimal Behaviour in Solar Renewable Energy Certificate (SREC) Markets," Papers 1904.06337, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2020.
    8. Gianmarco Del Sarto & Marta Leocata & Giulia Livieri, 2024. "A Mean Field Game approach for pollution regulation of competitive firms," Papers 2407.12754, arXiv.org.
    9. Lei, Heng & Xue, Minggao & Liu, Huiling, 2022. "Probability distribution forecasting of carbon allowance prices: A hybrid model considering multiple influencing factors," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    10. Arvind V. Shrivats & Dena Firoozi & Sebastian Jaimungal, 2022. "A mean‐field game approach to equilibrium pricing in solar renewable energy certificate markets," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 779-824, July.
    11. Dena Firoozi & Arvind V Shrivats & Sebastian Jaimungal, 2021. "Principal agent mean field games in REC markets," Papers 2112.11963, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    12. Feng, Ling & Wang, Jieyu, 2023. "Random sources correlations and carbon futures pricing," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    13. Taschini, Luca, 2021. "Flexibility premium of emissions permits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    14. Steffen Hitzemann & Marliese Uhrig-Homburg, 2019. "Empirical performance of reduced-form models for emission permit prices," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 389-418, October.
    15. : Dubois, Loick & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume & Vermandel, Gauthier, 2024. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Carbon Permit Banking," Single Market Economics Papers WP2024/20, Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs (European Commission), Chief Economist Team.
    16. Steven D. Baker & Burton Hollifield & Emilio Osambela, 2022. "Asset Prices and Portfolios with Externalities [Pricedetermination in the EU ETS market: theory and econometric analysis with market fundamentals]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(6), pages 1433-1468.
    17. Wegener, Christoph & Kruse-Becher, Robinson & Klein, Tony, 2024. "EU ETS Market Expectations and Rational Bubbles," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302359, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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