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Staying on Top of the Curve: A Cascade Model of Term Structure Dynamics

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  • Calvet, Laurent E.
  • Fisher, Adlai J.
  • Wu, Liuren

Abstract

This paper specifies term structure dynamics by a recursive cascade of heterogeneously persistent factors. The cascade naturally orders economic shocks by their adjustment speeds, and generates smooth interest-rate curves in closed form. For a class of specifications, the number of parameters is invariant to the size of the state space, and the term structure converges to a stochastic limit as the state dimension goes to infinity. High-dimensional specifications fit observed term structure almost perfectly, match the observed low correlation between movements in different maturities, and produce stable interest-rate forecasts that outperform lower-dimensional specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Calvet, Laurent E. & Fisher, Adlai J. & Wu, Liuren, 2018. "Staying on Top of the Curve: A Cascade Model of Term Structure Dynamics," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(2), pages 937-963, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:53:y:2018:i:02:p:937-963_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhiguang Wang & Brice Dupoyet, 2019. "A dimension‐invariant cascade model for VIX futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(10), pages 1214-1227, October.
    2. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2023. "Decomposing Long Bond Returns: A Decentralized Theory," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(3), pages 997-1026.
    3. Grobys, Klaus, 2023. "A multifractal model of asset (in)variances," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

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