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What a Difference a Month Makes: Stock Analyst Valuations Following Initial Public Offerings

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  • Houston, Joel
  • James, Christopher
  • Karceski, Jason

Abstract

We examine how analysts establish target prices for IPO firms and whether comparable firms used to support target prices are helpful in explaining IPO offer prices. During the bubble period of 1999 to 2000, the average offer price was set at a discount relative to comparable firm valuations. In contrast, the average offer price was set at a small premium relative to comparables in the pre-bubble period. This shift appears to hold even after controlling for the differences in the types of firms going public during the bubble period. Moreover, target prices of IPO firms were set at a higher premium relative to comparables during the bubble period. While our results suggest that underwriters systematically discounted offer prices during the bubble period, an alternative explanation is that the shift arose because underwriters and analysts faced different incentives and legal exposures during the bubble period.

Suggested Citation

  • Houston, Joel & James, Christopher & Karceski, Jason, 2006. "What a Difference a Month Makes: Stock Analyst Valuations Following Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 111-138, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:41:y:2006:i:01:p:111-138_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Song, Kyojik “Roy” & Mantecon, Tomas & Altintig, Z. Ayca, 2012. "Chaebol-affiliated analysts: Conflicts of interest and market responses," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 584-596.
    2. James, Christopher & Karceski, Jason, 2006. "Strength of analyst coverage following IPOs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 1-34, October.
    3. Li, Yi & Shen, Dehua & Wang, Pengfei & Zhang, Wei, 2019. "Do analyst recommendations matter for rival companies?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Roosenboom, Peter, 2012. "Valuing and pricing IPOs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1653-1664.
    5. McGuinness, Paul B., 2014. "IPO firm value and its connection with cornerstone and wider signalling effects," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 138-162.
    6. Boucher, Carène & Kooli, Maher, 2022. "Anatomy of money-losing IPOs," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    7. Ritter, Jay R. & Zhang, Donghang, 2007. "Affiliated mutual funds and the allocation of initial public offerings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 337-368, November.
    8. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.

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