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The Risk and Required Return of Common Stock following Major Price Innovations

Author

Listed:
  • Brown, Keith C.
  • Harlow, W. V.
  • Tinic, Seha M.

Abstract

This paper presents empirical evidence demonstrating that the risk and expected returns of common stocks typically change in the aftermath of large price movements. When temporary changes in uncertainty follow major financial events, subsequent stock returns should be positively correlated with the shift in return volatility. This prediction is strongly supported by the data on more than 9,100 daily price change events during 1962–1985. Moreover, the data also suggest that ex ante returns on common stocks may incorporate a premium for increases in parameter uncertainty associated with the events.

Suggested Citation

  • Brown, Keith C. & Harlow, W. V. & Tinic, Seha M., 1993. "The Risk and Required Return of Common Stock following Major Price Innovations," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(1), pages 101-116, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:28:y:1993:i:01:p:101-116_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Liam Ison & Robert Hudson, 2017. "Stock predictability and preceding stock price changes – evidence from central and eastern european markets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 733-740.
    2. Cano Rodríguez, Manuel, 2002. "Las tres caras del riesgo estratégico: riesgo sistemático, riesgo táctico y riesgo idiosincrásico," DEE - Documentos de Trabajo. Economía de la Empresa. DB db021508, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    3. Rezvanian, Rasoul & Turk, Rima A. & Mehdian, Seyed M., 2011. "Investors' reactions to sharp price changes: Evidence from equity markets of the People's Republic of China," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-18.
    4. Lo, Andrew W & Wang, Jiang, 2000. "Trading Volume: Definitions, Data Analysis, and Implications of Portfolio Theory," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 257-300.
    5. Dissanaike, Gishan, 1996. "Are stock price reversals really asymmetric? A note," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 189-201, January.
    6. Darko B. Vukovic & Orifjon O. U. Kurbonov & Moinak Maiti & Mustafa Özer & Milan Radovanovic, 2024. "Outperforming the market: a comparison of Star and NonStar analysts’ investment strategies and recommendations," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, December.
    7. Foort, HAMELINK, 1998. "Systematic Patterns Before and After Large Price Changes: Evidence from High Frequency Data from the Paris Bourse," HEC Research Papers Series 655, HEC Paris.
    8. Andrew W. Lo & Jiang Wang, 2006. "Trading Volume: Implications of an Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 2805-2840, December.
    9. Jarl G. Kallberg & Paolo Pasquariello, 2005. "An Examination of the Asian Crisis: Regime Shifts in Currency and Equity Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 169-212, January.
    10. Pantzalis, Christos & Stangeland, David A. & Turtle, Harry J., 2000. "Political elections and the resolution of uncertainty: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1575-1604, October.
    11. Amini, Shima & Gebka, Bartosz & Hudson, Robert & Keasey, Kevin, 2013. "A review of the international literature on the short term predictability of stock prices conditional on large prior price changes: Microstructure, behavioral and risk related explanations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-17.
    12. Júlio Lobão & Maria Eva Jerke, 2020. "Short-term Overreaction in American Depository Receipts," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 67(4), pages 423-435, December.
    13. Amini, Shima & Hudson, Robert & Keasey, Kevin, 2010. "Stock return predictability despite low autocorrelation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 101-103, July.
    14. Rezvanian Rasoul & Klaczynska Ewelina & Krysiak Zbigniew, 2015. "Equity Market Reaction to Sharp Price Changes: Evidence from Poland," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 62(2), pages 169-190, July.
    15. Hudson, Robert S. & Gregoriou, Andros, 2015. "Calculating and comparing security returns is harder than you think: A comparison between logarithmic and simple returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 151-162.
    16. Paula Hill & Robert Faff, 2010. "The Market Impact of Relative Agency Activity in the Sovereign Ratings Market," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(9‐10), pages 1309-1347, November.
    17. Yochanan Shachmurove, 2001. "Tests of Financial Markets Efficiency for Thirteen Small European Countries," Penn CARESS Working Papers eda175263851a1d10f52acc29, Penn Economics Department.
    18. Mehdian, Seyed & Nas, Tevfik & Perry, Mark J., 2008. "An examination of investor reaction to unexpected political and economic events in Turkey," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 337-350.
    19. Soner AKKOC & Nasif OZKAN, 2013. "An Empirical Investigation of the Uncertain Information Hypothesis: Evidence From Borsa Istanbul," Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, vol. 7(2), pages 101-119.
    20. Daniel Folkinshteyn & Gulser Meric & Ilhan Meric, 2015. "Investor Reaction In Stock Market Crashes And Post-Crash Market Reversals," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 9(5), pages 57-70.
    21. Fareiny Morni & Erimalida Yazi, 2021. "Stock Market Reaction to Political Regime Change in Malaysia," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 1-11.

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