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The Probability of a Trade at the Ask: An Examination of Interday and Intraday Behavior

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  • Porter, David C.

Abstract

This paper tests the null hypothesis of no difference in the probability of a trade occurring at the ask using a new database containing intraday bid-ask quotes and transaction prices on both U.S. and Canadian Exchanges. We use LOGIT analysis to test the hypothesis across days of the week, price-stratified portfolios, and times of the day. We find systematic patterns in the probability of a trade at the ask resembling previously documented returns anomalies and conclude that the findings of previous weekend and intraday returns studies may be overstated. The significance of this conclusion substantially increases as one moves from the use of interday to intraday data.

Suggested Citation

  • Porter, David C., 1992. "The Probability of a Trade at the Ask: An Examination of Interday and Intraday Behavior," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 209-227, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:27:y:1992:i:02:p:209-227_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & O'Hara, Maureen, 1997. "High frequency data in financial markets: Issues and applications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 73-114, June.
    2. Michael Aitken & Amaryllis Kua & Philip Brown & Terry Watter & H. Y. Izan, 1995. "An Intraday Analysis of the Probability of Trading on the ASX at the Asking Price," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 20(2), pages 115-154, December.
    3. Porter, David C. & Thatcher, John G., 1998. "Fragmentation, competition, and limit orders: New evidence from interday spreads," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 111-128.
    4. Frino, Alex & Jarnecic, Elvis & Johnstone, David & Lepone, Andrew, 2005. "Bid-ask bounce and the measurement of price behavior around block trades on the Australian Stock Exchange," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 247-262, June.
    5. Blazejewski, Adam & Coggins, Richard, 2005. "A local non-parametric model for trade sign inference," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 348(C), pages 481-495.
    6. Frino, Alex & Gallagher, David R. & Oetomo, Teddy N., 2006. "Further analysis of the liquidity and information components of institutional orders: Active versus passive funds," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 439-452, November.
    7. Liu, Yu-Jane, 1997. "Periodic market closure and order imbalances," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 95-111.
    8. Gosnell, Thomas F. & Keown, Arthur J. & Pinkerton, John M., 1996. "The intraday speed of stock price adjustment to major dividend changes: Bid-ask bounce and order flow imbalances," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 247-266, March.
    9. Shimeng Shi & Yukun Shi, 2021. "Bitcoin futures: trade it or ban it?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4-5), pages 381-396, March.
    10. Ban Zheng & Eric Moulines & Frédéric Abergel, 2013. "Price jump prediction in a limit order book," Post-Print hal-00684716, HAL.
    11. Chang, Eric C. & Michael Pinegar, J. & Ravichandran, R., 1998. "US day-of-the-week effects and asymmetric responses to macroeconomic news," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 513-534, May.
    12. Smimou, K. & Bector, C.R. & Jacoby, G., 2007. "A subjective assessment of approximate probabilities with a portfolio application," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 134-160, June.
    13. Dubofsky, David, 1997. "Limit orders and ex-dividend day return distributions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 47-65, January.

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