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The Hedging of an Uncertain Future Foreign Currency Cash Flow

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  • Kerkvliet, Joe
  • Moffett, Michael H.

Abstract

This paper derives the optimal hedge of an uncertain (unknown quantity) future foreign currency cash flow. This more general optimal hedge includes the traditional hedge for a certain (known quantity) future foreign currency cash flow as a special case. The optimal hedge is found to be unbounded and determined by firm-specific conditions, including the variance of the expected cash flow, and the correlation of that future cash flow with actual exchange rate movements. Simulated optimal hedge values are found for U.S.-based multinational firms possessing S/Dm cash flows, using exchange rate data for the 1981–1987 period. Special cases in which the optimal hedge ratio equals zero and one also are identified, and we show that cash flow uncertainty can strongly affect the effectiveness of hedging.

Suggested Citation

  • Kerkvliet, Joe & Moffett, Michael H., 1991. "The Hedging of an Uncertain Future Foreign Currency Cash Flow," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 565-578, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:26:y:1991:i:04:p:565-578_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Sergio H. Lence & Dermot J. Hayes & Yong Sakong, 1994. "Multiperiod Production with Forward and Option Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 76(2), pages 286-295.
    2. Mun, Kyung-Chun, 2016. "Hedging bank market risk with futures and forwards," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 112-125.
    3. Libo Yin & Liyan Han, 2015. "Hedging International Foreign Exchange Risks via Option Based Portfolio Insurance," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(1), pages 151-181, January.
    4. Fehle, Frank & Tsyplakov, Sergey, 2005. "Dynamic risk management: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 3-47, October.
    5. Mun, Kyung-Chun & Emir Morgan, George, 2003. "Bank foreign exchange and interest rate risk management: simultaneous versus separate hedging strategies," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 277-297, July.
    6. Hadian, Azadeh & Adaoglu, Cahit, 2020. "The effects of financial and operational hedging on company value: The case of Malaysian multinationals," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    7. Korn, Olaf & Merz, Alexander, 2016. "How to hedge if the payment date is uncertain?," CFR Working Papers 07-14 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    8. Jörgen Blomvall & Jonas Ekblom, 2018. "Corporate hedging: an answer to the “how” question," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 266(1), pages 35-69, July.
    9. Li, Zhezhou & Chen, Shengchen & Chang, Xiyang, 2024. "Achieving clean energy via economic stability to qualify sustainable development goals in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1382-1394.
    10. Jyoti Prakash Das & Shailendra Kumar, 2023. "Impact of corporate hedging practices on firm's value: An empirical evidence from Indian MNCs," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(2), pages 1-35, June.
    11. Wei, Xiaobo & Mohsin, Muhammad & Zhang, Qiongxin, 2022. "Role of foreign direct investment and economic growth in renewable energy development," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 828-837.
    12. Augusto Castillo R. & Rafael Aguila, 2005. "Estrategias Optimas De Cobertura En Presencia De Incertidumbre En Costos Y Cantidad," Abante, Escuela de Administracion. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 8(2), pages 88-110.
    13. Kim, Soon Sung & Chung, Jaiho & Hwang, Joon Ho & Pyun, Ju Hyun, 2020. "The effectiveness of foreign debt in hedging exchange rate exposure: Multinational enterprises vs. exporting firms," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    14. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2006:i:1:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Olaf Korn & Alexander Merz, 2019. "How to hedge if the payment date is uncertain?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 481-498, April.

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