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Quality Option Profits, Switching Option Profits, and Variation Margin Costs: An Evaluation of Their Size and Impact on Treasury Bond Futures Prices

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  • Barnhill, Theodore M.

Abstract

This paper provides empirical evidence that the quality option in T-bond futures is much less valuable than previously indicated. In addition, a dynamic trading strategy involving multiple switches of the cash bonds held in a long cash versus short futures position is shown to produce substantially greater profits than the single exercise of the quality option. These findings suggest that the optimal management of long cash/short futures positions is likely to involve dynamic trading strategies while passive strategies appear more appropriate for short cash/long futures positions. It is also shown that required variation margin payments are frequently large and may impact the profitability and risk of such positions to a greater extent than either of these options. Further, evidence is given indicating that observed T-bond futures prices reflect an imputed value for the options and risks inherent in such positions.

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  • Barnhill, Theodore M., 1990. "Quality Option Profits, Switching Option Profits, and Variation Margin Costs: An Evaluation of Their Size and Impact on Treasury Bond Futures Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 65-86, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:25:y:1990:i:01:p:65-86_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Merrick, John J. & Naik, Narayan Y. & Yadav, Pradeep K., 2004. "Strategic trading behavior and price distortion in a manipulated market: Anatomy of a squeeze," CFR Working Papers 04-07, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    2. Bing-Huei Lin & Ren-Raw Chen & Jian-Hsin Chou, 1999. "Pricing and quality option in Japanese government bond futures," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 51-65.
    3. Michèle Breton & Ramzi Ben‐Abdallah, 2018. "Time is money: An empirical investigation of delivery behavior in the U.S. T‐Bond futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 22-37, January.
    4. Peter Ritchken & L. Sankarasubramanian, 1995. "A Multifactor Model Of The Quality Option In Treasury Futures Contracts," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(3), pages 261-279, September.
    5. A. Bellier-Delienne, 2005. "Synthèse sur les Options de Livraison dans les Contrats à Terme," THEMA Working Papers 2005-09, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    6. Merrick, John Jr & Naik, Narayan Y. & Yadav, Pradeep K., 2005. "Strategic trading behavior and price distortion in a manipulated market: anatomy of a squeeze," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 171-218, July.
    7. Reichardt, Susana, 2006. "On the future contract quality option: a new look," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb063711, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    8. João Pedro Vidal Nunes & Luís Alberto Ferreira De Oliveira, 2007. "Multifactor and analytical valuation of treasury bond futures with an embedded quality option," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 275-303, March.
    9. Alejandro Balbas & Susana Reichardt, 2010. "On the future contract quality option: a new look," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(15), pages 1217-1229.

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