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A Comparison of the Information Content of Insider Trading and Management Earnings Forecasts

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  • Penman, Stephen H.

Abstract

In this paper, insider trading is viewed as a signal of managements' assessments of firms' future prospects and its information content is compared to that in managements' earnings forecasts. These forecasts are explicit statements of managements' assessments of future prospects. A number of measures of insider trading designed to capture the information aspect of trading are investigated. The results indicate that the insider trading measures do not capture the information conveyed in earnings forecasts, although there is evidence that insider trading measures that take into account the timing of trades relative to the date of the release of the forecast are informative.

Suggested Citation

  • Penman, Stephen H., 1985. "A Comparison of the Information Content of Insider Trading and Management Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 1-17, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:20:y:1985:i:01:p:1-17_01
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    Cited by:

    1. Elitzur, R. Ramy & Yaari, Varda, 1995. "Executive incentive compensation and earnings manipulation in a multi-period setting," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 201-219, March.
    2. Steven Allen & Ramachandran Ramanan, 1990. "Earnings surprises and prior insider trading: Tests of joint informativeness," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(2), pages 518-543, March.
    3. Agrawal, Anup & Nasser, Tareque, 2012. "Insider trading in takeover targets," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 598-625.
    4. Chih-Jen Huang, 2010. "The joint decision to manage earnings through discretionary accruals and asset sales around insider trading: Taiwan evidence," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 34(3), pages 308-325, July.
    5. Esther Brio & Javier Perote, 2007. "What Enhances Insider Trading Profitability?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 35(2), pages 173-188, June.
    6. Agrawal, Anup & Cooper, Tommy, 2015. "Insider trading before accounting scandals," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 169-190.
    7. Gilstrap, Collin & Petkevich, Alex & Teterin, Pavel, 2020. "Striking up with the in crowd: When option markets and insiders agree," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    8. Guanming He, 2023. "How do insider trading incentives shape nonfinancial disclosures? Evidence from product and business expansion disclosures," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 147-194, January.
    9. Ching, Ken M.L. & Firth, Michael & Rui, Oliver M., 2006. "The information content of insider trading around seasoned equity offerings," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 91-117, January.
    10. Del Brio, Esther B. & Miguel, Alberto & Perote, Javier, 2002. "An investigation of insider trading profits in the Spanish stock market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 73-94.
    11. Laurel Franzen & Xu Li & Oktay Urcan & Mark E. Vargus, 2014. "The Market Response To Insider Sales Of Restricted Stock Versus Unrestricted Stock," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 99-118, February.

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