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A Probability Model of Asset Trading

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  • Copeland, Thomas E.

Abstract

In a world where individuals are assumed to receive new information about an asset in random and sequential order, the volume of trading for a given message is a random variable. If the probabilities of trading events can be specified, it is possible to develop closed form expressions for the expected number of trades and the variance of trading. The result is a theory of trading which relates the number of trades to the characteristics of the message and to the number of participants in the market for an asset.

Suggested Citation

  • Copeland, Thomas E., 1977. "A Probability Model of Asset Trading," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 563-578, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:12:y:1977:i:04:p:563-578_02
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Randi Naes & Johannes A. Skjeltorp, 2003. "Strategic Investor Behaviour and the Volume-Volatility Relation in Equity Markets," Working Paper 2003/9, Norges Bank.
    2. Go, You-How & Lau, Wee-Yeap, 2020. "The impact of global financial crisis on informational efficiency: Evidence from price-volume relation in crude palm oil futures market," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    3. H. Jonathan Jang & Byung T. Ro, 1989. "Trading volume theories and their implications for empirical information content studies," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(1), pages 242-262, September.
    4. Serge Darolles & Gaëlle Le Fol & Gulten Mero, 2010. "When Market Illiquidity Generates Volumes," Working Papers halshs-00536046, HAL.
    5. Junni L. Zhang & Wolfgang Karl Hardle & Cathy Y. Chen & Elisabeth Bommes, 2020. "Distillation of News Flow into Analysis of Stock Reactions," Papers 2009.10392, arXiv.org.
    6. Stéphane Yen & Ming-Hsiang Chen, 2010. "Open interest, volume, and volatility: evidence from Taiwan futures markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 34(2), pages 113-141, April.
    7. Darolles, Serge & Fol, Gaëlle Le & Mero, Gulten, 2015. "Measuring the liquidity part of volume," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 92-105.
    8. Teppo Martikainen & Vesa Puttonen, 1996. "Sequential information arrival in the Finnish stock index derivatives markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 207-217.
    9. Marcus Alexander Ong, 2015. "An information theoretic analysis of stock returns, volatility and trading volumes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(36), pages 3891-3906, August.
    10. Assogbavi, T. & Khoury, N. & Yourougou, P., 1995. "Short interest and the asymmetry of the price-volume relationship in the Canadian stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1341-1358, November.
    11. Chionis, Dionysios & MacDonald, Ronald, 1997. "Some tests of market microstructure hypotheses in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 203-229, October.
    12. Davidson, Wallace N. & Kim, Jin Kyoung & Ors, Evren & Szakmary, Andrew, 2001. "Using implied volatility on options to measure the relation between asset returns and variability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1245-1269, July.
    13. Do, Hung Xuan & Brooks, Robert & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon & Wu, Eliza, 2014. "How does trading volume affect financial return distributions?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 190-206.
    14. Benjamin M. Blau & Bonnie F. Van Ness & Robert A. Van Ness, 2009. "Intraday Stealth Trading: Which Trades Move Prices During Periods Of High Volume?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-21, March.
    15. Malay K. Dey & Chaoyan Wang, 2022. "Asymmetric volume volatility causality in dual listing H-shares," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(5), pages 419-428, September.
    16. Dennis Murray, 1985. "Further Evidence On The Liquidity Effects Of Stock Splits And Stock Dividends," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 8(1), pages 59-68, March.
    17. J. Randall Woolridge & Chinmoy Ghosh, 1986. "Institutional Trading And Security Prices: The Case Of Changes In The Composition Of The S&P 500 Index," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 9(1), pages 13-24, March.
    18. Alex Frino & Elvis Jarnecic & Hui Zheng, 2010. "Activity in futures: does underlying market size relate to futures trading volume?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 313-325, April.
    19. Ralf Ostermark & Teppo Martikainen & Jaana Aaltonen, 1995. "The predictability of Finnish stock index futures and cash returns by derivatives volume," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(10), pages 391-393.
    20. Chia-Hao Lee & Pei-I Chou, 2012. "Trading Activity and Financial Market Integration," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 589-616, August.
    21. Bhaumik, S. & Karanasos, M. & Kartsaklas, A., 2016. "The informative role of trading volume in an expanding spot and futures market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 24-40.
    22. Todorova, Neda & Clements, Adam E., 2018. "The volatility-volume relationship in the LME futures market for industrial metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 111-124.

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