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Unpacking the Agricultural Black Box: The Rise and Fall of American Farm Productivity Growth

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  • Pardey, Philip G.
  • Alston, Julian M.

Abstract

Has the golden age of U.S. agricultural productivity growth ended? We analyze the detailed patterns of productivity growth spanning a century of profound changes in American agriculture. We document a substantial slowing of U.S. farm productivity growth, following a late mid-century surge—20 years after the surge and slowdown in U.S. industrial productivity growth. We posit and empirically probe three related explanations for this farm productivity surge-slowdown: the time path of agricultural R&D-driven knowledge stocks; a big wave of technological progress associated with great clusters of inventions; and dynamic aspects of the structural transformation of agriculture, largely completed by 1980.

Suggested Citation

  • Pardey, Philip G. & Alston, Julian M., 2021. "Unpacking the Agricultural Black Box: The Rise and Fall of American Farm Productivity Growth," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(1), pages 114-155, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:81:y:2021:i:1:p:114-155_4
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    1. Barbara J. Craig & Philip G. Pardey, 1996. "Productivity Measurement in the Presence of Quality Change," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1349-1354.
    2. Matthew A Andersen & Julian M Alston & Philip G Pardey & Aaron Smith, 2018. "A Century of U.S. Farm Productivity Growth: A Surge Then a Slowdown," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1072-1090.
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    1. repec:ags:aaea22:335587 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Frederic Ang & Stephen J. Ramsden, 2024. "Analysing determinate components of an approximated Luenberger–Hicks–Moorsteen productivity indicator: An application to German dairy‐processing firms," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(2), pages 349-370, April.
    3. Yu Sheng & V. Eldon Ball & Kenneth Erickson & Carlos San Juan Mesonada, 2022. "Cross-country agricultural TFP convergence and capital deepening: evidence for induced innovation from 17 OECD countries," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 185-202, December.
    4. Getu Hailu, 2023. "Reflections on technological progress in the agri‐food industry: Past, present, and future," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 71(1), pages 119-141, March.
    5. Cui, Xiaomeng & Zhong, Zheng, 2024. "Climate change, cropland adjustments, and food security: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    6. Kharel, S. & d'Abbadie, C. & Abadi, A. & Kingwell, R., 2022. "Reducing farming system emissions via spatial application of payoff functions," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).

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