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Numerare Est Errare: Agricultural Output and Food Supply in England Before and During the Industrial Revolution

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  • Kelly, Morgan
  • Ó Gráda, Cormac

Abstract

Carefully constructed but fallible historical estimates of GDP and agricultural output inform our understanding of the preindustrial origins of economic growth. Here we review four recent attempts at estimating agricultural output and food availability in England and Wales at different points between the Middle Ages and the Industrial Revolution. We highlight their contrasting implications for trends in well-being and nutritional status over time. Building on these estimates, we propose our own tentative, compromise estimate of food availability. The compromise estimates are more coherent with our understanding of conditions before and during the Industrial Revolution.

Suggested Citation

  • Kelly, Morgan & Ó Gráda, Cormac, 2013. "Numerare Est Errare: Agricultural Output and Food Supply in England Before and During the Industrial Revolution," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 73(4), pages 1132-1163, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:73:y:2013:i:04:p:1132-1163_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Kota Ogasawara & Ian Gazeley & Eric B. Schneider, 2020. "Nutrition, Crowding, And Disease Among Low‐Income Households In Tokyo In 1930," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(1), pages 73-104, March.
    2. Stephen Broadberry & Bruce M. S. Campbell & Alexander Klein & Mark Overton & Bas van Leeuwen, 2018. "Clark's Malthus delusion: response to ‘Farming in England 1200–1800’," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 71(2), pages 639-664, May.
    3. Izdebski, Adam & Koloch, Grzegorz & Słoczyński, Tymon & Tycner, Marta, 2016. "On the use of palynological data in economic history: New methods and an application to agricultural output in Central Europe, 0–2000AD," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 17-39.
    4. Cormac Ó Gráda, 2016. "Did Science Cause the Industrial Revolution?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(1), pages 224-239, March.
    5. Groth, Christian & Persson, Karl Gunnar, 2016. "Growth or stagnation in pre-industrial Britain? A revealed income growth approach," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 264, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    6. Mangirdas MORKUNAS & Artiom VOLKOV & Yuri BILAN & Agota Giedre RAIŠIENE, 2018. "The Role Of Government In Forming Agricultural Policy: Economic Resilience Measuring Index Exploited," REVISTA ADMINISTRATIE SI MANAGEMENT PUBLIC, Faculty of Administration and Public Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 2018(31), pages 111-131, December.
    7. Schneider, Eric, 2021. "The Effect of Nutritional Status on Historical Infectious Disease Morbidity: Evidence from the London Foundling Hospital, 1892-1919," CEPR Discussion Papers 16361, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Broadberry, Stephen & Gardner, Leigh, 2016. "Economic Development In Africa And Europe: Reciprocal Comparisons," Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(1), pages 11-37, March.
    9. Fourie, Johan & Greyling, Jan, 2023. "Wheat productivity in the Cape Colony in 1825: evidence from newly transcribed tax censuses," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 62(1), February.
    10. Penelope Francks, 2022. "Industriousness and divergence: Living standards, housework and the Japanese diet in comparative historical perspective," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(1), pages 26-46, March.
    11. Jaime Reis, 2016. "The Gross Agricultural Output of Portugal: A Quantitative, Unified Perspective, 1500-1850," Working Papers 0098, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    12. Peter Grajzl & Peter Murrell, 2023. "Of families and inheritance: law and development in England before the Industrial Revolution," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 17(3), pages 387-432, September.
    13. Morgan Kelly & Joel Mokyr & Cormac Ó Gráda, 2014. "Precocious Albion: A New Interpretation of the British Industrial Revolution," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 363-389, August.
    14. Schneider, Eric B., 2021. "The effect of nutritional status on historical infectious disease morbidity: evidence from the London Foundling Hospital, 1892-1919," Economic History Working Papers 111030, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    15. Blum, Matthias & McLaughlin, Eoin, 2019. "Living standards and inequality in the industrial revolution: Evidence from the height of University of Edinburgh students in the 1830s," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 185-192.
    16. Nicholas Crafts, 2021. "Understanding productivity growth in the industrial revolution," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 74(2), pages 309-338, May.
    17. José L. Martínez González, 2019. "High Wages or Wages For Energy? An Alternative View of The British Case (1645-1700)," Working Papers 0158, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).

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