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Did High Wages or High Interest Rates Bring Down the Weimar Republic? A Cointegration Model of Investment in Germany, 1925–1930

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  • Voth, Hans-Joachim

Abstract

This article offers a new interpretation of the low level of investment in Germany during the interwar period. Earlier contributions attributed the slow expansion of capital stock either to excessive wages due to state intervention and unionization or to the high cost of capital. These hypotheses are tested by estimating a cointegration model of investment. Counterfactual simulations demonstrate that lower wages would have lowered investment still further and that high interest rates acted as the main brake on investment during the second half of the 1920s.

Suggested Citation

  • Voth, Hans-Joachim, 1995. "Did High Wages or High Interest Rates Bring Down the Weimar Republic? A Cointegration Model of Investment in Germany, 1925–1930," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(4), pages 801-821, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:55:y:1995:i:04:p:801-821_04
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    Cited by:

    1. Block, Thorsten H., 2002. "Economic stagnation in Weimar Germany: a structuralist perspective," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 127-150, June.
    2. Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2003. "With a Bang, not a Whimper: Pricking Germany's “Stock Market Bubble” in 1927 and the Slide into Depression," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 63(1), pages 65-99, March.
    3. Albrecht Ritschl, 2012. "Reparations, Deficits, and Debt Default: the Great Depression in Germany," CEP Discussion Papers dp1149, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    4. Adam, Marc C. & Jansson, Walter, 2019. "Credit constraints and the propagation of the Great Depression in Germany," Discussion Papers 2019/12, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    5. Galofré-Vilà, Gregori, 2023. "Spoils of War: The Political Legacy of the German hyperinflation," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    6. Alfred Reckendrees, 2015. "Weimar Germany: The first open access order that failed?," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 38-60, March.
    7. Nicholas Dimsdale & N.H. Horsewood, 2004. "Unemployment and Real Wages in Weimar Germany," Economics Series Working Papers 2004-W56, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Block, Thorsten, 2001. "Economic stagnation in Weimar Germany: A structuralist perspective," Research Memorandum 025, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    9. Nicholas Dimsdale & N.H. Horsewood & A. van Riel, 2004. "Unemployment and Real Wages in Weimar Germany," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _056, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

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