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A Comparison of Subjective and Historical Crop Yield Probability Distributions

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  • Pease, James W.

Abstract

Forecast distributions based on historical yields and subjective expectations for 1987 expected crop yields were compared for 90 Western Kentucky grain farms. Different subjective probability elicitation techniques were also compared. In many individual cases, results indicate large differences between subjective and empirical moments. Overall, farmer expectations for 1987 corn yields were below those predicted from their past yields, while soybean expectations were above the historical forecast. Geographical location plays a larger role than crop in comparisons of relative variability of yield. Neither elicitation technique nor manager characteristics have significant effects on the comparisons of the forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Pease, James W., 1992. "A Comparison of Subjective and Historical Crop Yield Probability Distributions," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(2), pages 23-32, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:24:y:1992:i:02:p:23-32_01
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    1. Clop-Gallart, M. Merce & Juarez-Rubio, Francisco, 2008. "Shape Persistence in Elicited Subjective Crop Yield Probability Density Functions," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44128, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Zanini, Fabio C. & Irwin, Scott H. & Schnitkey, Gary D. & Sherrick, Bruce J., 2000. "Estimating Farm-Level Yield Distributions For Corn And Soybeans In Illinois," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21720, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Metcalfe, Todd & Bosch, Darrell J. & Pease, James W. & Alley, Mark M. & Phillips, Steve B., 2007. "Yield Reserve Program Costs in the Virginia Coastal Plain," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 36(2), pages 1-16, October.
    4. Nelson, R. A. & Holzworth, D. P. & Hammer, G. L. & Hayman, P. T., 2002. "Infusing the use of seasonal climate forecasting into crop management practice in North East Australia using discussion support software," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 393-414, December.
    5. Anderson, John D. & Barnett, Barry J. & Coble, Keith H., 2009. "Impacts of the SURE Standing Disaster Assistance Program on Producer Risk Management and Crop Insurance Programs," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49304, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Tor N. Tolhurst & Alan P. Ker, 2015. "On Technological Change in Crop Yields," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(1), pages 137-158.
    7. Duke, Jason C. & Epplin, Francis M. & Vitale, Jeffrey D. & Peeper, Thomas F., 2009. "Canola-Wheat Rotation versus Continuous Wheat for the Southern Plains," 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia 46620, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    8. Rejesus, Roderick M. & Marra, Michele C. & Roberts, Roland K. & English, Burton C. & Larson, James A. & Paxton, Kenneth W., 2013. "Changes in Producers' Perceptions of Within-Field Yield Variability after Adoption of Cotton Yield Monitors," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(2), pages 295-312, May.
    9. Guan, Zhengfei & Wu, Feng, 2018. "Regulation and Farm Labor Market Structure," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274168, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Clop-Gallart, M. Merce & Juarez-Rubio, Francisco, 2005. "Elicitation of Subjective Crop Yield PDF for DSS Implementation," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24561, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Egelkraut, Thorsten M. & Garcia, Philip & Pennings, Joost M.E. & Sherrick, Bruce J., 2006. "Producers' Yield and Yield Risk: Perceptions versus Reality and Crop Insurance Use," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21369, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    12. Ubilava, David & Barnett, Barry J. & Coble, Keith H. & Harri, Ardian, 2011. "The SURE Program and Its Interaction with Other Federal Farm Programs," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 1-19.

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