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Statistical Significance and Stability of the Hog Cycle

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  • Shonkwiler, J. Scott
  • Spreen, Thomas H.

Abstract

Cyclical fluctuations in prices and production have long characterized the United States hog industry. Recent evidence suggests that the length of the hog cycle has changed. In order to determine whether the change in cycle length is statistically significant, the bootstrap technique is employed to derive confidence intervals for point estimates of the hog cycle. Application of the bootstrap technique to time series models is discussed and empirical results are presented. It is concluded that the hog cycle is undergoing rather complicated changes based on cycle lengths that are calculated to be statistically different from zero.

Suggested Citation

  • Shonkwiler, J. Scott & Spreen, Thomas H., 1986. "Statistical Significance and Stability of the Hog Cycle," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 227-234, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:18:y:1986:i:02:p:227-234_00
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J. Scott Shonkwiler & Thomas H. Spreen, 1982. "A Dynamic Regression Model of the U.S. Hog Market," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 30(1), pages 37-48, March.
    2. Plain, Ronald L. & Williams, Joseph E., 1981. "Adaptive Planning Under Price Uncertainty In Pork Production," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 13(2), pages 1-8, December.
    3. Brock, William A., 1972. "On models of expectations that arise from maximizing behavior of economic agents over time," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 348-376, December.
    4. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1985. "On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 995-1045, September.
    5. Usa Ers, 1984. "Situation and Outlook," Food Review/ National Food Review, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 0(1), March.
    6. Harold F. Breimyer, 1959. "Emerging Phenomenon: A Cycle in Hogs," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 41(4), pages 760-768.
    7. Plain, Ronald L. & Williams, Joseph E., 1981. "Adaptive Planning Under Price Uncertainty in Pork Production," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 39-46, December.
    8. Spreen, Thomas H. & Shonkwiler, J. Scott, 1981. "The Hog Cycle Revisited," 1981 Annual Meeting, July 26-29, Clemson, South Carolina 279384, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    9. Day, Richard H, 1982. "Irregular Growth Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 406-414, June.
    10. Arthur A. Harlow, 1960. "The Hog Cycle and the Cobweb Theorem," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 42(4), pages 842-853.
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    Cited by:

    1. Atle Oglend & Frank Asche, 2016. "Cyclical non-stationarity in commodity prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1465-1479, December.
    2. Jiong Gong & R. Preston McAfee & Michael A. Williams, 2016. "Fraud Cycles," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 172(3), pages 544-572, September.
    3. Craig, Lee A. & Holt, Matthew T., 2008. "Mechanical refrigeration, seasonality, and the hog-corn cycle in the United States: 1870-1940," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 30-50, January.
    4. Christoph Engel & Hanjo Hamann, 2012. "The Hog-Cycle of Law Professors," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2012_08, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    5. Christoph Engel & Hanjo Hamann, 2016. "The Hog Cycle of Law Professors: An Econometric Time Series Analysis of the Entry-Level Job Market in Legal Academia," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(7), pages 1-22, July.
    6. Holst, Carsten & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2012. "International Synchronisation of the Pork Cycle," Acta Oeconomica et Informatica, Faculty of Economics and Management, Slovak Agricultural University in Nitra (FEM SPU), vol. 15(1), pages 1-6, March.
    7. Chavas, Jean-Paul, 1999. "On The Economic Rationality Of Market Participants: The Case Of Expectations In The U.S. Pork Market," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-19, July.
    8. Stępień Sebastian & Polcyn Jan, 2016. "The phenomenon of cyclical fluctuations on the pork market - global perspective," Management, Sciendo, vol. 20(1), pages 382-396, May.

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