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Ensuring Peace: Foreign-Imposed Regime Change and Postwar Peace Duration, 1914–2001

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  • Lo, Nigel
  • Hashimoto, Barry
  • Reiter, Dan

Abstract

This research note develops a new explanation of postwar peace duration: periods of peace following wars last longer when the war ends in foreign-imposed regime change. This study tests this hypothesis on a new data set (an expansion of Fortna's (2004) data) of all periods of peace following interstate war cease-fires, over the period 1914–2001. It also tests for other possible factors affecting postwar peace duration, including international institutions, the revelation of information during war, third-party intervention during war, postwar changes in the balance of power, regime type, past conflict history, and others. The article finds strong support for the central hypothesis that peace lasts longer following wars that end in foreign-imposed regime change. This pacifying effect diminishes over time when a puppet is imposed, but not when a democracy is imposed. There are other results, including that the strength of a cease-fire agreement has almost no impact on peace duration.

Suggested Citation

  • Lo, Nigel & Hashimoto, Barry & Reiter, Dan, 2008. "Ensuring Peace: Foreign-Imposed Regime Change and Postwar Peace Duration, 1914–2001," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(4), pages 717-736, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:intorg:v:62:y:2008:i:04:p:717-736_08
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeff Colgan, 2012. "Measuring Revolution," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 29(4), pages 444-467, September.
    2. Toke S. Aidt & Facundo Albornoz & Esther Hauk, 2019. "Foreign in influence and domestic policy: A survey," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1928, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Danielle Villa & Daniel Arnon & Dan Reiter, 2022. "Causes of Foreign-Imposed Regime Change: The Signal of Economic Expropriation," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 66(4-5), pages 651-676, May.
    4. Stephen L. Quackenbush, 2016. "Centers of gravity and war outcomes," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 33(4), pages 361-380, September.
    5. Toke S. Aidt & Facundo Albornoz & Esther Hauk, 2021. "Foreign Influence and Domestic Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 426-487, June.
    6. Philip Arena & Anna O. Pechenkina, 2016. "External Subsidies and Lasting Peace," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 60(7), pages 1278-1311, October.
    7. Michaela Mattes & Burcu Savun, 2010. "Information, Agreement Design, and the Durability of Civil War Settlements," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(2), pages 511-524, April.
    8. KAGOTANI Koji & ONO Yoshikuni, 2020. "Diplomatic Protest and Patriotism: The Effect of Foreign Voices on Japanese Public Opinion," Discussion papers 20046, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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