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Estimation For The Prediction Of Point Processes With Many Covariates

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  • Sancetta, Alessio

Abstract

Estimation of the intensity of a point process is considered within a nonparametric framework. The intensity measure is unknown and depends on covariates, possibly many more than the observed number of jumps. Only a single trajectory of the counting process is observed. Interest lies in estimating the intensity conditional on the covariates. The impact of the covariates is modelled by an additive model where each component can be written as a linear combination of possibly unknown functions. The focus is on prediction as opposed to variable screening. Conditions are imposed on the coefficients of this linear combination in order to control the estimation error. The rates of convergence are optimal when the number of active covariates is large. As an application, the intensity of the buy and sell trades of the New Zealand Dollar futures is estimated and a test for forecast evaluation is presented. A simulation is included to provide some finite sample intuition on the model and asymptotic properties.

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  • Sancetta, Alessio, 2018. "Estimation For The Prediction Of Point Processes With Many Covariates," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 598-627, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:34:y:2018:i:03:p:598-627_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Maxime Morariu-Patrichi & Mikko S. Pakkanen, 2018. "State-dependent Hawkes processes and their application to limit order book modelling," Papers 1809.08060, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
    2. Chiang, Wen-Hao & Liu, Xueying & Mohler, George, 2022. "Hawkes process modeling of COVID-19 with mobility leading indicators and spatial covariates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 505-520.
    3. Luca Mucciante & Alessio Sancetta, 2023. "Estimation of an Order Book Dependent Hawkes Process for Large Datasets," Papers 2307.09077, arXiv.org.
    4. Alessio Sancetta, 2023. "Intraday Trades Profile Estimation: An Intensity Approach," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(3), pages 651-677.
    5. Maxime Morariu-Patrichi & Mikko Pakkanen, 2018. "State-dependent Hawkes processes and their application to limit order book modelling," CREATES Research Papers 2018-26, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

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