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Modeling Stock Prices without Knowing How to Induce Stationarity

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  • Dejong, David N.
  • Whiteman, Charles H.

Abstract

In “Modeling Stock Prices without Knowing How to Induce Stationarity” (1994, Econometric Theory 10, 701–719), we used posterior-odds calculations to evaluate restrictions imposed by a present-value model of stock prices across the equations of a VAR representation of stock prices and dividends. The results we reported are tainted by the omission of two factors: the Jacobians induced by the mapping of our priors over VAR parameters β into the restricted sample spaces relevant under hypotheses H2-H4 (hence, tainting our calculations of p(Hi|y,X) in (22) for i = 2–4), and an integrating constant needed in calculating the unrestricted probability p(Hi|y,X) in (22). Table 1 reports our revised calculations, which differ substantively from those reported previously.

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  • Dejong, David N. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1996. "Modeling Stock Prices without Knowing How to Induce Stationarity," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 739-740, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:04:p:739-740_00
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    Cited by:

    1. DeJong, David N. & Ripoll, Marla, 2007. "Do self-control preferences help explain the puzzling behavior of asset prices?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1035-1050, May.
    2. F. Douglas Foster & Charles H. Whiteman, 2006. "Bayesian Prediction, Entropy, and Option Pricingx," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 31(2), pages 181-205, December.

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