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The impact of climate change on agro-ecological zones: evidence from Africa

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  • Kala, Namrata
  • Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep
  • Mendelsohn, Robert

Abstract

This study predicts the impact of climate change on African agriculture. We use a generalized linear model (GLM) framework to estimate the relationship between the proportion of various Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) in a district and climate. Using three climate scenarios, we project how climate change will cause AEZs to shift, causing changes in acreage and net revenue per hectare of cropland. Our results predict that Africa will suffer heavy annual welfare losses by 2070–2100, ranging between US$14 billion and US$70 billion, depending on the climate scenario and cropland measure considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Kala, Namrata & Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2012. "The impact of climate change on agro-ecological zones: evidence from Africa," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(6), pages 663-687, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:endeec:v:17:y:2012:i:06:p:663-687_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Azwihangwisi E. Nesamvuni & Khathutshelo A. Tshikolomo & Gabriel R. Lekalakala & Brilliant M. Petja & Johan van Niekerk, 2022. "A framework to monitor and evaluate the vulnerability of smallholder livestock farmers: a case study of Limpopo & Mpumalanga Provinces," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 29(1), pages 732-752, March.
    2. Xinde Ji & Kelly M. Cobourn, 2018. "The Economic Benefits of Irrigation Districts under Prior Appropriation Doctrine: An Econometric Analysis of Agricultural Land‐Allocation Decisions," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 66(3), pages 441-467, September.
    3. Kelly M. Cobourn & Xinde Ji & Siân Mooney & Neil F. Crescenti, 2022. "The effect of prior appropriation water rights on land‐allocation decisions in irrigated agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(3), pages 947-975, May.
    4. Achyuta Adhvaryu & Namrata Kala & Anant Nyshadham, 2020. "The Light and the Heat: Productivity Co-Benefits of Energy-Saving Technology," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 779-792, October.
    5. Steven Passel & Emanuele Massetti & Robert Mendelsohn, 2017. "A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on European Agriculture," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(4), pages 725-760, August.
    6. Boxell, Levi, 2019. "Droughts, conflict, and the African slave trade," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 774-791.
    7. Cobourn, Kelly M. & Ji, Xinde & Mooney, Sian & Crescenti, Neil, 2017. "Water right seniority, economic efficiency and land allocation decisions," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258271, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Chonabayashi, Shun & Jithitikulchai, Theepakorn & Qu, Yeqing, 2020. "Does agricultural diversification build economic resilience to drought and flood? Evidence from poor households in Zambia," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 15(1), March.
    9. Fenske, James & Kala, Namrata, 2012. "Climate, ecosystem resilience and the slave trade," MPRA Paper 38398, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Singh, Naveen P. & Anand, Bhawna & Singh, Surendra, 2020. "Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in India: Assessment for Agro-Climatic Zones," Policy Papers 344978, ICAR National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research (NIAP).
    11. Xinde Ji & Kelly M. Cobourn, 2021. "Weather Fluctuations, Expectation Formation, and Short-Run Behavioral Responses to Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 78(1), pages 77-119, January.
    12. Ji, Xinde & Cobourn, Kelly M., 2017. "Water Availability, Land Allocation, and the Role of Irrigation Districts under Prior Appropriation Doctrine," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258377, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Fenske, James & Kala, Namrata, 2015. "Climate and the slave trade," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 19-32.
    14. Perrings, Charles, 2014. "Environment and development economics 20 years on," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 333-366, June.
    15. Tran, Tuyen & Vu, Huong, 2013. "Farmland loss, nonfarm diversification and inequality: A micro-econometric analysis of household surveys in Vietnam," MPRA Paper 47596, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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