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Negotiating under Political Uncertainty: National Elections and the Dynamics of International Co-operation

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  • Kleine, Mareike
  • Minaudier, Clement

Abstract

This article explores if (and how) national elections affect the chances of concluding an international agreement. Drawing on a literature about the informational efficiency of elections, it examines how political uncertainty in the run-up to an election impacts the dynamics of international negotiations. Using the case of decision making in the European Union (EU), it finds that (1) pending national elections significantly reduce the chances of reaching an agreement at the international level (2) this effect is strongest during close elections with uncertain outcomes and (3) the effect is particularly pronounced in the case of elections in larger member states. The findings highlight the fruitfulness of further research on the dynamics between national and international politics. The article has positive and normative implications for the literature on two-level games, international negotiations and legislative bargaining in the EU.

Suggested Citation

  • Kleine, Mareike & Minaudier, Clement, 2019. "Negotiating under Political Uncertainty: National Elections and the Dynamics of International Co-operation," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(1), pages 315-337, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:49:y:2019:i:01:p:315-337_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Thiemo Fetzer & Carlo Schwarz, 2021. "Tariffs and Politics: Evidence from Trump’s Trade Wars," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(636), pages 1717-1741.
    2. Alexander Baturo & Julia Gray, 2024. "Leaders in the United Nations General Assembly: Revitalization or politicization?," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 721-752, October.
    3. Kleine, Mareike, 2024. "Negotiating with your mouth full: intergovernmental negotiations between transparency and confidentiality," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 124152, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Stefanie Walter, 2021. "EU‐27 Public Opinion on Brexit," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 569-588, May.
    5. Antonis Adam & Maxime Menuet & Petros G. Sekeris, 2024. "Conflict under the shadow of elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 200(1), pages 173-199, July.

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