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Revisiting Electoral Volatility in Post-Communist Countries: New Data, New Results and New Approaches

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  • Powell, Eleanor Neff
  • Tucker, Joshua A.

Abstract

This article provides a detailed set of coding rules for disaggregating electoral volatility into two components: volatility caused by new party entry and old party exit, and volatility caused by vote switching across existing parties. After providing an overview of both types of volatility in post-communist countries, the causes of volatility are analysed using a larger dataset than those used in previous studies. The results are startling: most findings based on elections in post-communist countries included in previous studies disappear. Instead, entry and exit volatility is found to be largely a function of long-term economic recovery, and it becomes clear that very little is known about what causes ‘party switching’ volatility. As a robustness test of this latter result, the authors demonstrate that systematic explanations for party-switching volatility in Western Europe can indeed be found.

Suggested Citation

  • Powell, Eleanor Neff & Tucker, Joshua A., 2014. "Revisiting Electoral Volatility in Post-Communist Countries: New Data, New Results and New Approaches," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 123-147, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:44:y:2014:i:01:p:123-147_00
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    Cited by:

    1. J. Stephen Ferris & Bharatee Bhusana Dash, 2023. "On the structure of the political party system in Indian states, 1957–2018," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 1-35, March.
    2. Riccardo Pelizzo & Zim Nwokora, 2016. "Bridging the Divide: Measuring Party System Change and Classifying Party Systems," Research Africa Network Working Papers 16/042, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    3. Sarkar, Sandip & Dash, Bharatee Bhusana, 2023. "On the measurement of electoral volatility," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 119-128.
    4. Michelle Kuenzi & Hafthor Erlingsson & John P. Tuman, 2021. "The Role of International Factors in Electoral Volatility in Latin America: An Examination of Structural Adjustment," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, May.
    5. Marko Klašnja, 2016. "Increasing rents and incumbency disadvantage," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 28(2), pages 225-265, April.
    6. Jerome Archambault & Stanley L. Winer, 2023. "Political Competitiveness, Regression Discontinuity and the Incumbency Effect," CESifo Working Paper Series 10356, CESifo.
    7. Federico Vegetti, 2019. "The Political Nature of Ideological Polarization: The Case of Hungary," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 681(1), pages 78-96, January.
    8. Bharatee Bhusana Dash & J. Stephen Ferris, 2018. "Economic Performance and Electoral Volatility: Testing the Economic Voting Hypothesis on Indian States, 1957–2013," Carleton Economic Papers 18-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    9. Daniel M Kselman, 2020. "Public goods equilibria under closed- and open-list proportional representation," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 32(1), pages 112-142, January.

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