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Leader Survival and Natural Disasters

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  • Quiroz Flores, Alejandro
  • Smith, Alastair

Abstract

Analyses of the occurrence of natural disasters show that in large coalition systems, such as democracies, their occurrence has little effect on protest or leader survival. However, if large numbers of people die in these disasters, more protests occur and leader survival diminishes. In contrast, for leaders in small coalition systems, the occurrence of disasters increases protests and reduces tenure, but the level of fatalities has little effect. The anticipation of these potential political effects accounts for why many more people die in disasters in small coalition systems than in large coalition systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Quiroz Flores, Alejandro & Smith, Alastair, 2013. "Leader Survival and Natural Disasters," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(4), pages 821-843, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:43:y:2013:i:04:p:821-843_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Rabah Arezki & Simeon Djankov & Ha Nguyen & Ivan Yotzov, 2022. "The Political Costs of Oil Price Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 9763, CESifo.
    2. Malcolm R Easton & Randolph M Siverson, 2018. "Leader survival and purges after a failed coup d’état," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 55(5), pages 596-608, September.
    3. Eunbin Chung & Inbok Rhee, 2022. "Disasters and intergroup peace in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(1), pages 58-72, January.
    4. Jeroen Klomp, 2020. "Election or Disaster Support?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(1), pages 205-220, January.
    5. Dodlova, Marina & Zudenkova, Galina, 2021. "Incumbents’ performance and political extremism," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    6. Petrova, Kristina & Rosvold, Elisabeth L., 2024. "Mitigating the legacy of violence: Can flood relief improve people’s trust in government in conflict-affected areas? Evidence from Pakistan," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    7. Adelaide Baronchelli & Roberto Ricciuti & Mattia Viale, 2023. "Elite persistence in medieval Venice after the Black Death," Working Papers 01/2023, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    8. Serikbayeva, Balzhan & Abdulla, Kanat & Oskenbayev, Yessengali, 2020. "State capacity in responding to COVID-19," MPRA Paper 101511, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ahlerup, Pelle, 2013. "Natural Disasters and Government Turnover," Working Papers in Economics 554, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    10. Oleg Smirnov & Martin C. Steinwand & Tingyin Xiao & Minghua Zhang, 2018. "Climate Impacts, Political Institutions, and Leader Survival: Effects of Droughts and Flooding Precipitation," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 181-201, July.
    11. Juan Carlos Martín & Concepción Román, 2021. "COVID-19 Is Examining the EU and the Member States: The Role of Attitudes and Sociodemographic Factors on Citizens’ Support towards National Policies," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-27, January.
    12. Jun Wen & Chun-Ping Chang, 2015. "Government ideology and the natural disasters: a global investigation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(3), pages 1481-1490, September.
    13. Cavalcanti, Francisco, 2018. "Voters sometimes provide the wrong incentives. The lesson of the Brazilian drought industry," MPRA Paper 88317, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Alejandro Quiroz Flores & Farhana Liza & Husam Quteineh & Barbara Czarnecka, 2021. "Variation in the timing of Covid-19 communication across universities in the UK," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(2), pages 1-25, February.
    15. Takaaki Masaki & Bradley C. Parks, 2020. "When do performance assessments influence policy behavior? Micro-evidence from the 2014 Reform Efforts Survey," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 371-408, April.
    16. De Juan, Alexander & Pierskalla, Jan & Schwarz, Elisa, 2020. "Natural disasters, aid distribution, and social conflict – Micro-level evidence from the 2015 earthquake in Nepal," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    17. Gina Yannitell Reinhardt & Carmela Lutmar, 2022. "Disaster diplomacy: The intricate links between disaster and conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(1), pages 3-11, January.

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