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A Tactical Error in the Analysis of Tactical Voting: A Response to Niemi, Whitten and Franklin

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  • Evans, Geoffrey
  • Heath, Anthony

Abstract

In their article ‘Constituency Characteristics, Individual Characteristics and Tactical Voting in the 1987 British General Election’, Niemi, Whitten and Franklin claim that in the 1987 general election ‘about one in every six voters … had tactical considerations in mind in deciding whom to vote for’. As they point out, this figure is far higher than Heath et al.'s estimate of 6.5 per cent of major party voters having ‘a tactical motivation for their vote’. It is also far higher than estimates obtained by other analyses of the 1987 election using aggregate data. In this Note we point to methodological weaknesses in Niemi, Whitten and Franklin's article which indicate that their estimate is unlikely to be a valid measure of tactical voting, at least of the concept as customarily understood by political scientists. Indeed, when looked at carefully, the evidence they present to support their expanded estimate of tactical voting serves only to re-affirm the original claims of Heath and his colleagues and the other conservative estimates of the prevalence of tactical voting.

Suggested Citation

  • Evans, Geoffrey & Heath, Anthony, 1993. "A Tactical Error in the Analysis of Tactical Voting: A Response to Niemi, Whitten and Franklin," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 131-137, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:23:y:1993:i:01:p:131-137_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Tandon, Sharad, 2012. "Election Outcomes and Food Security: Evidence from Consumption of Scheduled Castes and Tribes in India," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124414, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Haldun Evrenk & Chien-Yuan Sher, 2015. "Social interactions in voting behavior: distinguishing between strategic voting and the bandwagon effect," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 405-423, March.
    3. HeeMin Kim & Tatiana Kostadinova, 2011. "Does Tactical Voting Matter? The Political Impact of Tactical Voting in Canadian Elections," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 49-72, March.
    4. John Bartle, 2005. "Homogeneous Models and Heterogeneous Voters," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 53(4), pages 653-675, December.
    5. David P. Myatt & Stephen D. Fisher, 2002. "Everything is Uncertain and Uncertainty is Everything: Strategic Voting in Simple Plurality Elections," Economics Series Working Papers 115, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

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