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The Constraining Power of International Treaties: Theory and Methods

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  • SIMMONS, BETH A.
  • HOPKINS, DANIEL J.

Abstract

We acknowledge the contribution of von Stein (2005) in calling attention to the very real problem of selection bias in estimating treaty effects. Nonetheless, we dispute both von Stein's theoretical and empirical conclusions. Theoretically, we contend that treaties can both screen and constrain simultaneously, meaning that findings of screening do nothing to undermine the claim that treaties constrain state behavior as well. Empirically, we question von Stein's estimator on several grounds, including its strong distributional assumptions and its statistical inconsistency. We then illustrate that selection bias does not account for much of the difference between Simmons's (2000) and von Stein's (2005) estimated treaty effects, and instead reframe the problem as one of model dependency. Using a preprocessing matching step to reduce that dependency, we then illustrate treaty effects that are both substantively and statistically significant—and that are quite close in magnitude to those reported by Simmons.

Suggested Citation

  • Simmons, Beth A. & Hopkins, Daniel J., 2005. "The Constraining Power of International Treaties: Theory and Methods," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 99(4), pages 623-631, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:99:y:2005:i:04:p:623-631_05
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    1. Valente, Thomas W. & Pitts, Stephanie & Wipfli, Heather & Vega Yon, George G., 2019. "Network influences on policy implementation: Evidence from a global health treaty," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 188-197.
    2. Spilker, Gabriele, 2013. "The Impact of Preferencial Trade Agreements on Governmental Repression Revisited," Papers 553, World Trade Institute.
    3. Jonathan McDonald Ladd & Gabriel S. Lenz, 2009. "Exploiting a Rare Communication Shift to Document the Persuasive Power of the News Media," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(2), pages 394-410, April.
    4. William Phelan, 2008. "Open International Markets without Exclusion: Encompassing Domestic Institutions, Excludable Goods, and International Public Goods," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp245, IIIS.
    5. Mumtaz Hussain Shah, 2017. "Political Institutions and the Incidence of FDI in South Asia," Business & Economic Review, Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan, vol. 9(1), pages 21-42, March.
    6. Tim Büthe & Helen V. Milner, 2008. "The Politics of Foreign Direct Investment into Developing Countries: Increasing FDI through International Trade Agreements?," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(4), pages 741-762, October.
    7. Ramzi Badran, 2014. "Intrastate peace agreements and the durability of peace," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(2), pages 193-217, April.
    8. Psofogiorgos, Nikolaos - Alexandros & Metaxas, Theodore, 2017. "IMF, Democracy and Economic Development: Review and Critique," MPRA Paper 79403, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Stephen C. Nelson & Geoffrey P. R. Wallace, 2017. "Are IMF lending programs good or bad for democracy?," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 523-558, December.
    10. Adam S. Chilton & Mila Versteeg, 2015. "The Failure of Constitutional Torture Prohibitions," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(2), pages 417-452.
    11. Colgan, Jeff D., 2014. "The Emperor Has No Clothes: The Limits of OPEC in the Global Oil Market," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 599-632, July.
    12. Erik Gartzke & Dong-Joon Jo, 2009. "Bargaining, Nuclear Proliferation, and Interstate Disputes," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 53(2), pages 209-233, April.
    13. Kim Eun-Hee & Lyon Thomas, 2011. "When Does Institutional Investor Activism Increase Shareholder Value?: The Carbon Disclosure Project," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-29, August.
    14. Soumyajit Mazumder, 2016. "Can I stay a BIT longer? The effect of bilateral investment treaties on political survival," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 477-521, December.
    15. Jürg Vollenweider, 2013. "The effectiveness of international environmental agreements," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 343-367, September.
    16. Jonathan P. Kastellec & Jeffrey R. Lax, 2008. "Case Selection and the Study of Judicial Politics," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(3), pages 407-446, September.
    17. Jon Hovi & Tora Skodvin, 2017. "Why the United States Supports International Enforcement for Some Treaties but not for Others," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 5(2), pages 79-92.
    18. Zhiyuan Wang & Hyunjin Youn, 2018. "Locating the External Source of Enforceability: Alliances, Bilateral Investment Treaties, and Foreign Direct Investment," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 99(1), pages 80-96, March.
    19. Martin Steinwand & Randall Stone, 2008. "The International Monetary Fund: A review of the recent evidence," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 123-149, June.
    20. Emilie M. Hafner-Burton & Jana von Stein & Erik Gartzke, 2008. "International Organizations Count," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 52(2), pages 175-188, April.
    21. Gabriele Spilker & Tobias Böhmelt, 2013. "The impact of preferential trade agreements on governmental repression revisited," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 343-361, September.
    22. Leslie Johns, 2014. "Depth versus rigidity in the design of international trade agreements," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 26(3), pages 468-495, July.

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